AFC Hornchurch vs Scunthorpe: prediction and stats
National LeagueRegular Season - 9Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC)Hornchurch Stadium, London
The Footlab model makes AFC Hornchurch the favourite at 47%, against 25% for a draw and 29% for Scunthorpe. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win AFC Hornchurch vs Scunthorpe?
A very open match: only 31 Elo points separate AFC Hornchurch (1,888) and Scunthorpe (1,857).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, AFC Hornchurch have 10 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats; Scunthorpe have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Carlisle(away) | 1-4 | National League |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Norwich City U21(home) | 1-2 | National League Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Barrow(away) | 2-1 | National League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Kidderminster Harriers(home) | 3-0 | National League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Coventry City U21(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Eastleigh(away) | 2-3 | National League |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Stoke City U21(home) | 4-0 | National League Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Southend(away) | 0-1 | National League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Yeovil Town(home) | 1-1 | National League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Chesterfield(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
How many goals should we expect?
AFC Hornchurch score 2.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Scunthorpe score 1.4 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Hornchurch | 2.1 | 1.1 | 6 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| Scunthorpe | 1.4 | 1.3 | 4 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
AFC Hornchurch sit 7th in National League (6 points from 3 matches) and Scunthorpe sit 19th (1 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | AFC Hornchurch | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 6 |
| 19 | Scunthorpe | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for AFC Hornchurch vs Scunthorpe?
- The Footlab model makes AFC Hornchurch the favourite at 47%, against 25% for a draw and 29% for Scunthorpe.
- Where and when is AFC Hornchurch vs Scunthorpe played?
- AFC Hornchurch vs Scunthorpe is played on September 19, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC) at Hornchurch Stadium, in the National League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.