AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage: prediction and stats
League OneRegular Season - 9Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)The Cherry Red Records Stadium, London
The Footlab model makes Stevenage the favourite at 39%, against 29% for a draw and 32% for AFC Wimbledon. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage?
Stevenage starts as the favourite with a 106-point Elo edge (1,831 vs 1,725).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, AFC Wimbledon have 3 wins, 4 draws and 8 defeats; Stevenage have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Reading(home) | 0-0 | League One |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Leyton Orient(away) | 1-1 | EFL Trophy |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Huddersfield(away) | 0-3 | League One |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Newport County(home) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | QPR(home) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Oxford United(home) | 1-2 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Burton Albion(away) | 1-1 | League One |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Wycombe(away) | 2-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Colchester(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Millwall(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 AFC Wimbledon win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Stevenage win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | Stevenage 1-0 AFC Wimbledon | League One |
| Dec 26, 2025 | AFC Wimbledon 0-0 Stevenage | League One |
| Sep 2, 2025 | AFC Wimbledon 1-5 Stevenage | EFL Trophy |
| Sep 5, 2023 | AFC Wimbledon 1-1 Stevenage | EFL Trophy |
| Apr 15, 2023 | Stevenage 2-1 AFC Wimbledon | League Two |
| Feb 28, 2023 | AFC Wimbledon 2-3 Stevenage | League Two |
Last archived meeting: Stevenage vs AFC Wimbledon on Mar 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
AFC Wimbledon score 0.7 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Stevenage score 0.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Wimbledon | 0.7 | 1.5 | 4 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Stevenage | 0.9 | 1.3 | 6 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
AFC Wimbledon sit 23rd in League One (1 points from 2 matches) and Stevenage sit 19th (1 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Stevenage | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 23 | AFC Wimbledon | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage?
- The Footlab model makes Stevenage the favourite at 39%, against 29% for a draw and 32% for AFC Wimbledon.
- Where and when is AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage played?
- AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage is played on October 3, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at The Cherry Red Records Stadium, in the League One.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.