Águila vs Fuerte San Francisco: prediction and stats
Primera DivisionApertura - 7Kick-off on August 30, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Juan Francisco Barraza, San Miguel
The Footlab model makes Águila the favourite at 57%, against 25% for a draw and 18% for Fuerte San Francisco. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Águila vs Fuerte San Francisco?
Águila starts as the favourite with a 197-point Elo edge (1,673 vs 1,477).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Águila have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Fuerte San Francisco have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | FAS(away) | 0-1 | Primera Division |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Atletico Balboa(home) | 2-4 | Primera Division |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Isidro Metapán(away) | 1-2 | Primera Division |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Cacahuatique(away) | 2-2 | Primera Division |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Inter(away) | 0-0 | Primera Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Atletico Balboa(away) | 0-1 | Primera Division |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Isidro Metapán(home) | 1-0 | Primera Division |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Cacahuatique(away) | 0-0 | Primera Division |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Inter(home) | 2-2 | Primera Division |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Firpo(away) | 0-4 | Primera Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Águila win(s), 3 draw(s), 0 Fuerte San Francisco win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2026 | Águila 1-1 Fuerte San Francisco | Primera Division |
| Feb 26, 2026 | Fuerte San Francisco 0-1 Águila | Copa Presidente |
| Feb 4, 2026 | Fuerte San Francisco 2-3 Águila | Primera Division |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Águila 3-3 Fuerte San Francisco | Primera Division |
| Aug 10, 2025 | Fuerte San Francisco 0-0 Águila | Primera Division |
| Apr 17, 2025 | Águila 3-0 Fuerte San Francisco | Primera Division |
Last archived meeting: Águila vs Fuerte San Francisco on Apr 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Águila score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Fuerte San Francisco score 0.7 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Águila | 1.1 | 1.3 | 4 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Fuerte San Francisco | 0.7 | 1.2 | 3 | 6/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Águila sit 11th in Primera Division (3 points from 6 matches) and Fuerte San Francisco sit 9th (6 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Fuerte San Francisco | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 6 |
| 11 | Águila | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Águila vs Fuerte San Francisco?
- The Footlab model makes Águila the favourite at 57%, against 25% for a draw and 18% for Fuerte San Francisco.
- Where and when is Águila vs Fuerte San Francisco played?
- Águila vs Fuerte San Francisco is played on August 30, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Juan Francisco Barraza, in the Primera Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.