Ahal vs Şagadam: prediction and stats
Ýokary LigaRegular Season - 26Kick-off on November 7, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Ahal Stadium, Abadan
The Footlab AI model makes Ahal the favourite at 71%, against 20% for a draw and 9% for Şagadam. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 4,444 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 4, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ahal vs Şagadam?
Ahal starts as the favourite with a 284-point Elo edge (1,617 vs 1,333).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Ahal vs Şagadam
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Ahal
3-5-2- 17E. Annayev
- 10E. Tagaýev
- 7Begench Mamiyew
- 5H. Bashimov
- 6N. Towakelow
- 30A. Abdyrahmanow
- 98D. Hojamammedov
- 21O. Orazov
- 3B. Gurgenov
- 4Beglimuhammet Bekmyradov
- 23K. Berdiyev
Şagadam
Not enough data to predict the Şagadam lineup.
Computed on November 4, 2026 at 10:20 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ahal have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Şagadam have 2, 4 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Altyn Asyr(away) | 0-0 | Ýokary Liga |
| Oct 23, 2026 | Al Ansar(home) | 2-1 | AFC Challenge League |
| Oct 20, 2026 | Al Ittihad(away) | 1-5 | AFC Challenge League |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Paro(home) | 2-2 | AFC Challenge League |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Altyn Asyr(home) | 0-2 | Ýokary Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026 | Köpetdag Aşgabat(away) | 0-0 | Ýokary Liga |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Nebitci(away) | 0-3 | Ýokary Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Merw(home) | 0-2 | Ýokary Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Altyn Asyr(away) | 0-2 | Ýokary Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Ahal(home) | 2-1 | Ýokary Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Ahal wins, 2 draws, 1 Şagadam win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | Şagadam 2-1 Ahal | Ýokary Liga |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Ahal 1-0 Şagadam | Ýokary Liga |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Şagadam 1-3 Ahal | Ýokary Liga |
| Dec 1, 2025 | Ahal 1-0 Şagadam | Ýokary Liga |
| Nov 7, 2025 | Şagadam 0-0 Ahal | Ýokary Liga |
| May 30, 2025 | Ahal 1-1 Şagadam | Ýokary Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Ahal score 2.0 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Şagadam score 0.4 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahal | 2.0 | 1.7 | 5 | 8/15 | 12/15 |
| Şagadam | 0.4 | 1.5 | 4 | 3/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ahal sit 3rd in Ýokary Liga (42 points from 22 matches) and Şagadam sit 4th (22 points from 21 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Ahal | 22 | 13 | 3 | 6 | 50 | 28 | 42 |
| 4 | Şagadam | 21 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 19 | 32 | 22 |
A question about Ahal vs Şagadam?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ahal vs Şagadam?
- The Footlab AI model makes Ahal the favourite at 71%, against 20% for a draw and 9% for Şagadam.
- Where and when is Ahal vs Şagadam played?
- Ahal vs Şagadam is played on November 7, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Ahal Stadium, in the Ýokary Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.