Al Ahli Doha vs Lusail City: prediction and stats
Stars LeagueRegular Season - 2Kick-off on August 28, 2026 at 02:15 PM (UTC)Hamad bin Khalifa Stadium, Doha
The Footlab model makes Al Ahli Doha the favourite at 50%, against 23% for a draw and 27% for Lusail City. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Al Ahli Doha vs Lusail City?
Al Ahli Doha starts as the favourite with a 113-point Elo edge (1,694 vs 1,581).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Al Ahli Doha have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Lusail City have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Al Sadd(away) | 1-3 | Stars League |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC(away) | 3-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Al Shabab(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 27, 2026 | UMM Salal(away) | 3-1 | Stars League |
| Apr 22, 2026 | Al-Nassr(away) | 1-5 | AFC Champions League Two |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Al-Rayyan SC(away) | 0-1 | Stars League |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Den Bosch(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Dordrecht(away) | 0-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Al Bidda SC(home) | 1-2 | Second Division |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Al-Markhiya(away) | 2-0 | Second Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Al Ahli Doha win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Lusail City win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2025 | Lusail City 4-1 Al Ahli Doha | QSL Cup |
Last archived meeting: Lusail City vs Al Ahli Doha on Sep 24, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Al Ahli Doha score 1.8 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Lusail City score 1.5 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Ahli Doha | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1 | 13/15 | 13/15 |
| Lusail City | 1.5 | 1.5 | 3 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Al Ahli Doha sit 11th in Stars League (0 points from 1 matches) and Lusail City sit 10th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Lusail City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 11 | Al Ahli Doha | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Al Ahli Doha vs Lusail City?
- The Footlab model makes Al Ahli Doha the favourite at 50%, against 23% for a draw and 27% for Lusail City.
- Where and when is Al Ahli Doha vs Lusail City played?
- Al Ahli Doha vs Lusail City is played on August 28, 2026 at 02:15 PM (UTC) at Hamad bin Khalifa Stadium, in the Stars League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.