Al-Gharafa vs Al Shamal: prediction and stats
Stars LeagueRegular Season - 2Kick-off on August 27, 2026 at 02:15 PM (UTC)Thani Bin Jassim Stadium (Al-Gharafah Stadium), Doha
The Footlab model makes Al Shamal the favourite at 43%, against 24% for a draw and 33% for Al-Gharafa. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Al-Gharafa vs Al Shamal?
A very open match: only 9 Elo points separate Al-Gharafa (1,724) and Al Shamal (1,715).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Al-Gharafa have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Al Shamal have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Al Shahaniya(home) | 2-1 | Stars League |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Al Riyadh(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Šamorín(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 9, 2026 | Al Sadd(home) | 4-1 | Emir Cup |
| May 5, 2026 | Al Wakrah(away) | 0-0 | Emir Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Al-Arabi SC(away) | 2-2 | Stars League |
| May 1, 2026 | Al Sadd(home) | 4-6 | Emir Cup |
| Apr 27, 2026 | Al Sadd(away) | 2-3 | Stars League |
| Apr 13, 2026 | Qatar SC(home) | 0-2 | Stars League |
| Apr 8, 2026 | Al Shahaniya(away) | 0-2 | Stars League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Al-Gharafa win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Al Shamal win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2026 | Al-Gharafa 0-1 Al Shamal | Stars League |
| Oct 27, 2025 | Al-Gharafa 0-1 Al Shamal | QSL Cup |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Al Shamal 0-0 Al-Gharafa | Stars League |
| Feb 8, 2025 | Al Shamal 1-2 Al-Gharafa | Stars League |
| Oct 12, 2024 | Al-Gharafa 1-1 Al Shamal | QSL Cup |
| Sep 13, 2024 | Al-Gharafa 1-1 Al Shamal | Stars League |
Last archived meeting: Al-Gharafa vs Al Shamal on Feb 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Al-Gharafa score 1.5 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Al Shamal score 1.5 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Gharafa | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Al Shamal | 1.5 | 1.6 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Al-Gharafa sit 3rd in Stars League (3 points from 1 matches) and Al Shamal sit 8th (1 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Al-Gharafa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Al Shamal | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Al-Gharafa vs Al Shamal?
- The Footlab model makes Al Shamal the favourite at 43%, against 24% for a draw and 33% for Al-Gharafa.
- Where and when is Al-Gharafa vs Al Shamal played?
- Al-Gharafa vs Al Shamal is played on August 27, 2026 at 02:15 PM (UTC) at Thani Bin Jassim Stadium (Al-Gharafah Stadium), in the Stars League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.