Al Ahly vs Smouha SC: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 3Kick-off on September 1, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)WE Al-Ahly Stadium, Cairo
The Footlab model makes Al Ahly the favourite at 52%, against 29% for a draw and 19% for Smouha SC. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Al Ahly vs Smouha SC?
Al Ahly starts as the favourite with a 263-point Elo edge (2,031 vs 1,768).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Al Ahly have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Smouha SC have 5, 0 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Enppi(home) | 3-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Barcelona(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 20, 2026 | AL Masry(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| May 5, 2026 | Enppi(home) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| May 1, 2026 | Zamalek SC(away) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | AL Masry(away) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| May 20, 2026 | Pyramids FC(away) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| May 5, 2026 | Zamalek SC(home) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Apr 27, 2026 | AL Masry(home) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Apr 22, 2026 | Ceramica Cleopatra(home) | 0-2 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Al Ahly win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Smouha SC win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2026 | Al Ahly 2-1 Smouha SC | Premier League |
| Feb 23, 2026 | Smouha SC 0-1 Al Ahly | Premier League |
| Jan 7, 2025 | Al Ahly 2-0 Smouha SC | Premier League |
| Aug 8, 2024 | Smouha SC 0-1 Al Ahly | Premier League |
| Nov 28, 2023 | Al Ahly 0-0 Smouha SC | Premier League |
| Apr 17, 2023 | Smouha SC 0-2 Al Ahly | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Al Ahly score 1.6 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Smouha SC score 0.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 35% probability of over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Ahly | 1.6 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Smouha SC | 0.9 | 1.1 | 2 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Al Ahly sit 2nd in Premier League (3 points from 1 matches) and Smouha SC sit 18th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Al Ahly | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 18 | Smouha SC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Al Ahly vs Smouha SC?
- The Footlab model makes Al Ahly the favourite at 52%, against 29% for a draw and 19% for Smouha SC.
- Where and when is Al Ahly vs Smouha SC played?
- Al Ahly vs Smouha SC is played on September 1, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at WE Al-Ahly Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 35% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.