Al Diriyah vs Al Riyadh: prediction and stats
Pro LeagueRegular Season - 10Kick-off on October 15, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Al Diriyah the favourite at 53%, against 23% for a draw and 24% for Al Riyadh. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Al Diriyah vs Al Riyadh?
Al Diriyah starts as the favourite with a 100-point Elo edge (1,819 vs 1,719).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Al Diriyah have 10 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats; Al Riyadh have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Al-Hazm(away) | 1-0 | Pro League |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Al-Nassr(home) | 1-4 | King's Cup |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Al-Ahli Jeddah(home) | 0-1 | Pro League |
| Jul 23, 2026 | FA 2000(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Trelleborg(away) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Al-Nassr(home) | 0-4 | Pro League |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Al Zulfi(away) | 2-0 | King's Cup |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Al-Ettifaq(away) | 2-4 | Pro League |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Al-Gharafa(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 21, 2026 | Al Okhdood(home) | 1-0 | Pro League |
How many goals should we expect?
Al Diriyah score 2.0 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Al Riyadh score 1.3 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Diriyah | 2.0 | 1.3 | 5 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Al Riyadh | 1.3 | 1.9 | 3 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Al Diriyah sit 10th in Pro League (3 points from 2 matches) and Al Riyadh sit 18th (0 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Al Diriyah | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 18 | Al Riyadh | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Al Diriyah vs Al Riyadh?
- The Footlab model makes Al Diriyah the favourite at 53%, against 23% for a draw and 24% for Al Riyadh.
- Where and when is Al Diriyah vs Al Riyadh played?
- Al Diriyah vs Al Riyadh is played on October 15, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC), in the Pro League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.