Al-Gharafa B vs Al-Markhiya: prediction and stats
Second DivisionRegular Season - 2Kick-off on August 30, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Al-Markhiya the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Al-Gharafa B. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Al-Gharafa B vs Al-Markhiya?
Al-Markhiya starts as the favourite with a 171-point Elo edge (1,661 vs 1,490).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Al-Gharafa B have 3 wins, 2 draws and 10 defeats; Al-Markhiya have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Al Bidda SC(away) | 1-1 | Second Division |
| Apr 3, 2017 | Al-Markhiya(home) | 1-6 | Second Division |
| Mar 8, 2017 | Umm Salal B(home) | 10-1 | Second Division |
| Mar 5, 2017 | El Jaish SC B(home) | 2-1 | Second Division |
| Feb 12, 2017 | Al Shahaniya II(home) | 1-5 | Second Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Al-Khor(away) | 3-0 | Second Division |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Al-Khor(away) | 3-0 | Second Division |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Lusail City(home) | 0-2 | Second Division |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Al Waab(away) | 1-1 | Second Division |
| Apr 5, 2026 | Muaither SC(home) | 3-4 | Second Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Al-Gharafa B win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Al-Markhiya win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2017 | Al-Gharafa B 1-6 Al-Markhiya | Second Division |
| Nov 29, 2015 | Al-Markhiya 3-5 Al-Gharafa B | Second Division |
| Feb 8, 2015 | Al-Gharafa B 1-1 Al-Markhiya | Second Division |
| Oct 20, 2013 | Al-Markhiya 3-3 Al-Gharafa B | Second Division |
Last archived meeting: Al-Gharafa B vs Al-Markhiya on Apr 3, 2017
How many goals should we expect?
Al-Gharafa B score 2.3 and concede 3.1 goals per match over their last 15; Al-Markhiya score 1.5 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Gharafa B | 2.3 | 3.1 | 0 | 13/15 | 14/15 |
| Al-Markhiya | 1.5 | 1.3 | 4 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Al-Gharafa B sit 3rd in Second Division (1 points from 1 matches) and Al-Markhiya sit 1st (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Markhiya | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Al-Gharafa B | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Al-Gharafa B vs Al-Markhiya?
- The Footlab model makes Al-Markhiya the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Al-Gharafa B.
- Where and when is Al-Gharafa B vs Al-Markhiya played?
- Al-Gharafa B vs Al-Markhiya is played on August 30, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC), in the Second Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.