Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha: prediction and stats
Stars LeagueRegular Season - 7Kick-off on October 22, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Thani Bin Jassim Stadium (Al-Gharafah Stadium), Doha
The Footlab AI model makes Al-Gharafa the favourite at 44%, against 23% for a draw and 33% for Al Ahli Doha. The most likely score is 1-1. If Al-Gharafa wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha?
A very open match: only 19 Elo points separate Al-Gharafa (1,691) and Al Ahli Doha (1,672).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Al-Gharafa
4-2-3-1- 9F. Magri
- 13F. Sassi
- 29F. Díaz
- 8Y. Brahimi
- 96A. Ounas
- 10I. Bennacer
- 18Ayoub Al Oui
- 4S. Sano
- 23Saifeldeen Hassan Fadlalla
- 2Abdulrahman Faiz Al Rashidi
- 1Khalifa Ababacar
Al Ahli Doha
4-2-3-1- 14M. Vlap
- 7J. Draxler
- 27B. Bourigeaud
- 77Ismaeel Mohammad
- 33D. Fettouhi
- 8Talal Al Shila
- 41Ahmed Reyed
- 88A. Amraoui
- 12Ghanem Al Minhali
- 49Z. Sassi
- 13Mohamed Lingliz
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 12:54 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Al-Gharafa have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Al Ahli Doha have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | Al Wakrah(away) | 2-3 | Stars League |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Al Mesaimeer(home) | 4-2 | QSL Cup |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC(away) | 1-2 | AFC Champions League Elite |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Lusail City(home) | 0-0 | Stars League |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Al Sadd(away) | 1-4 | Stars League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | Al-Markhiya(away) | 1-1 | QSL Cup |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Al Shahaniya(home) | 0-1 | QSL Cup |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Al-Rayyan SC(away) | 0-3 | Stars League |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Qatar SC(home) | 1-0 | Stars League |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Lusail City(home) | 3-3 | Stars League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Al-Gharafa wins, 0 draws, 3 Al Ahli Doha wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2026 | Al-Gharafa 1-4 Al Ahli Doha | Stars League |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Al Ahli Doha 1-3 Al-Gharafa | Stars League |
| Jan 22, 2025 | Al-Gharafa 2-0 Al Ahli Doha | Stars League |
| Aug 18, 2024 | Al Ahli Doha 1-0 Al-Gharafa | Stars League |
| May 8, 2024 | Al-Gharafa 4-3 Al Ahli Doha | Emir Cup |
| Feb 24, 2024 | Al-Gharafa 1-2 Al Ahli Doha | Stars League |
Last archived meeting: Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha on Mar 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Al-Gharafa score 1.7 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Al Ahli Doha score 1.7 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 69% probability of over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Gharafa | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2 | 13/15 | 12/15 |
| Al Ahli Doha | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Al-Gharafa sit 10th in Stars League (4 points from 5 matches) and Al Ahli Doha sit 9th (4 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Al Ahli Doha | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 4 |
| 10 | Al-Gharafa | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 4 |
A question about Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha?
- The Footlab AI model makes Al-Gharafa the favourite at 44%, against 23% for a draw and 33% for Al Ahli Doha.
- Where and when is Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha played?
- Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha is played on October 22, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Thani Bin Jassim Stadium (Al-Gharafah Stadium), in the Stars League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 69% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.