Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha: prediction and stats
Stars LeagueRegular Season - 7Kick-off on October 22, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Thani Bin Jassim Stadium (Al-Gharafah Stadium), Doha
The Footlab model makes Al-Gharafa the favourite at 40%, against 24% for a draw and 37% for Al Ahli Doha. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha?
A very open match: only 29 Elo points separate Al-Gharafa (1,723) and Al Ahli Doha (1,694).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Al-Gharafa have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Al Ahli Doha have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Al Shahaniya(home) | 2-1 | Stars League |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Al Riyadh(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Šamorín(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 9, 2026 | Al Sadd(home) | 4-1 | Emir Cup |
| May 5, 2026 | Al Wakrah(away) | 0-0 | Emir Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Al Sadd(away) | 1-3 | Stars League |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC(away) | 3-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Al Shabab(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 27, 2026 | UMM Salal(away) | 3-1 | Stars League |
| Apr 22, 2026 | Al-Nassr(away) | 1-5 | AFC Champions League Two |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Al-Gharafa win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Al Ahli Doha win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2026 | Al-Gharafa 1-4 Al Ahli Doha | Stars League |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Al Ahli Doha 1-3 Al-Gharafa | Stars League |
| Jan 22, 2025 | Al-Gharafa 2-0 Al Ahli Doha | Stars League |
| Aug 18, 2024 | Al Ahli Doha 1-0 Al-Gharafa | Stars League |
| May 8, 2024 | Al-Gharafa 4-3 Al Ahli Doha | Emir Cup |
| Feb 24, 2024 | Al-Gharafa 1-2 Al Ahli Doha | Stars League |
Last archived meeting: Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha on Mar 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Al-Gharafa score 1.5 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Al Ahli Doha score 1.8 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Gharafa | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Al Ahli Doha | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1 | 13/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Al-Gharafa sit 3rd in Stars League (3 points from 1 matches) and Al Ahli Doha sit 11th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Al-Gharafa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Al Ahli Doha | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha?
- The Footlab model makes Al-Gharafa the favourite at 40%, against 24% for a draw and 37% for Al Ahli Doha.
- Where and when is Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha played?
- Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha is played on October 22, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Thani Bin Jassim Stadium (Al-Gharafah Stadium), in the Stars League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.