Al-Gharafa vs Al-Arabi SC: prediction and stats
Stars LeagueRegular Season - 10Kick-off on November 27, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Thani Bin Jassim Stadium (Al-Gharafah Stadium), Doha
The Footlab model makes Al-Gharafa the favourite at 41%, against 23% for a draw and 36% for Al-Arabi SC. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Al-Gharafa vs Al-Arabi SC?
A very open match: only 1 Elo points separate Al-Gharafa (1,723) and Al-Arabi SC (1,722).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Al-Gharafa have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Al-Arabi SC have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Al Shahaniya(home) | 2-1 | Stars League |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Al Riyadh(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Šamorín(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 9, 2026 | Al Sadd(home) | 4-1 | Emir Cup |
| May 5, 2026 | Al Wakrah(away) | 0-0 | Emir Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Al Shamal(home) | 2-2 | Stars League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Malaga(away) | 2-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 27, 2026 | NEOM(away) | 1-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 1, 2026 | Al-Duhail SC(away) | 0-4 | Emir Cup |
| Apr 27, 2026 | Al-Rayyan SC(away) | 0-4 | Stars League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 6 Al-Gharafa win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Al-Arabi SC win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2026 | Al-Arabi SC 1-2 Al-Gharafa | Stars League |
| Aug 22, 2025 | Al-Gharafa 2-1 Al-Arabi SC | Stars League |
| Apr 4, 2025 | Al-Arabi SC 1-3 Al-Gharafa | Stars League |
| Oct 31, 2024 | Al-Gharafa 3-1 Al-Arabi SC | Stars League |
| Mar 30, 2024 | Al-Arabi SC 0-1 Al-Gharafa | Stars League |
| Nov 3, 2023 | Al-Gharafa 5-4 Al-Arabi SC | Stars League |
Last archived meeting: Al-Arabi SC vs Al-Gharafa on Jan 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Al-Gharafa score 1.5 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Al-Arabi SC score 1.5 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 70% probability of over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Gharafa | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Al-Arabi SC | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Al-Gharafa sit 3rd in Stars League (3 points from 1 matches) and Al-Arabi SC sit 5th (1 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Al-Gharafa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Al-Arabi SC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Al-Gharafa vs Al-Arabi SC?
- The Footlab model makes Al-Gharafa the favourite at 41%, against 23% for a draw and 36% for Al-Arabi SC.
- Where and when is Al-Gharafa vs Al-Arabi SC played?
- Al-Gharafa vs Al-Arabi SC is played on November 27, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Thani Bin Jassim Stadium (Al-Gharafah Stadium), in the Stars League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 70% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.