Al Riyadh vs NEOM: prediction and stats
Pro LeagueRegular Season - 3Kick-off on August 28, 2026 at 03:50 PM (UTC)Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Riyadh
The Footlab model makes NEOM the favourite at 47%, against 25% for a draw and 28% for Al Riyadh. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 20, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Al Riyadh vs NEOM?
NEOM starts as the favourite with a 150-point Elo edge (1,874 vs 1,724).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Al Riyadh have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; NEOM have 8, 5 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Al Zulfi(away) | 2-0 | King's Cup |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Al-Ettifaq(away) | 2-4 | Pro League |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Al-Gharafa(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 21, 2026 | Al Okhdood(home) | 1-0 | Pro League |
| May 15, 2026 | Al Taawon(away) | 1-1 | Pro League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | Al-Faisaly FC(away) | 3-1 | King's Cup |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Al-Fayha(home) | 2-1 | Pro League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Las Palmas(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Al-Arabi SC(home) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Orlando Pirates(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Al Riyadh win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 NEOM win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 6, 2026 | NEOM 1-0 Al Riyadh | Pro League |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Al Riyadh 2-3 NEOM | Pro League |
How many goals should we expect?
Al Riyadh score 1.3 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; NEOM score 1.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Riyadh | 1.3 | 1.9 | 3 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| NEOM | 1.7 | 1.1 | 4 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Al Riyadh sit 16th in Pro League (0 points from 1 matches) and NEOM sit 6th (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | NEOM | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 16 | Al Riyadh | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Al Riyadh vs NEOM?
- The Footlab model makes NEOM the favourite at 47%, against 25% for a draw and 28% for Al Riyadh.
- Where and when is Al Riyadh vs NEOM played?
- Al Riyadh vs NEOM is played on August 28, 2026 at 03:50 PM (UTC) at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, in the Pro League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.