Alexandria vs Cetatea: prediction and stats
Liga III - Serie 5Group 5 - 20Kick-off on March 13, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadionul Comunal 2, Clinceni
The Footlab model makes Cetatea the favourite at 40%, against 26% for a draw and 34% for Alexandria. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Alexandria vs Cetatea?
A very open match: only 82 Elo points separate Alexandria (1,429) and Cetatea (1,511).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Alexandria have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Cetatea have 6, 1 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 2026 | Dunărea 2020 Giurgiu(away) | 0-3 | Cupa României |
| May 15, 2026 | CSL Nanov(away) | 2-2 | Liga III - Serie 5 |
| May 8, 2026 | Filiaşi(home) | 2-0 | Liga III - Serie 5 |
| May 1, 2026 | Axi Adunații-Copăceni(away) | 1-2 | Liga III - Serie 5 |
| Apr 24, 2026 | Dunărea 2020 Giurgiu(home) | 0-1 | Liga III - Serie 5 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | Dunărea 2020 Giurgiu(away) | 1-2 | Cupa României |
| May 22, 2026 | Vulturii Fărcăşeşti(home) | 4-2 | Liga III - Play-offs |
| May 16, 2026 | Jiul Petroşani(away) | 2-0 | Liga III - Play-offs |
| May 8, 2026 | CSM Ramnicu Valcea(home) | 0-3 | Liga III - Play-offs |
| May 2, 2026 | Minerul Lupeni(away) | 0-2 | Liga III - Play-offs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Alexandria win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Cetatea win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2026 | Alexandria 1-1 Cetatea | Liga III - Serie 5 |
| Oct 24, 2025 | Cetatea 2-0 Alexandria | Liga III - Serie 5 |
| Nov 1, 2024 | Cetatea 0-1 Alexandria | Liga III - Serie 4 |
| Sep 1, 2024 | Alexandria 3-0 Cetatea | Liga III - Serie 4 |
| Dec 3, 2022 | Cetatea 3-1 Alexandria | Liga III - Serie 6 |
| Oct 2, 2022 | Alexandria 7-1 Cetatea | Liga III - Serie 6 |
Last archived meeting: Alexandria vs Cetatea on Mar 20, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Alexandria score 1.5 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Cetatea score 1.7 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandria | 1.5 | 1.7 | 4 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Cetatea | 1.7 | 1.7 | 4 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Alexandria sit 2nd in Liga III - Serie 5 (43 points from 6 matches) and Cetatea sit 2nd (43 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Alexandria | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 43 |
| 2 | Cetatea | 20 | 12 | 7 | 1 | 41 | 19 | 43 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Alexandria vs Cetatea?
- The Footlab model makes Cetatea the favourite at 40%, against 26% for a draw and 34% for Alexandria.
- Where and when is Alexandria vs Cetatea played?
- Alexandria vs Cetatea is played on March 13, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadionul Comunal 2, in the Liga III - Serie 5.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.