Casalarreina vs Alfaro: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Group 16 - 6Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal El Soto, Haro
The Footlab model makes Alfaro the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 34% for Casalarreina. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Casalarreina vs Alfaro?
Alfaro starts as the favourite with a 119-point Elo edge (1,743 vs 1,624).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Casalarreina have 5 wins, 1 draws and 9 defeats; Alfaro have 3, 2 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2025 | La Calzada(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| May 4, 2025 | Autol(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Tedeón(away) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Apr 16, 2025 | River Ebro(home) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Vianés(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | Real Unión(away) | 0-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | SD Logroñés(home) | 0-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Náxara(home) | 2-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Tudelano(away) | 1-3 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Real Zaragoza II(home) | 3-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 2 Casalarreina win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Alfaro win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2024 | Casalarreina 1-2 Alfaro | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Nov 11, 2023 | Alfaro 1-5 Casalarreina | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Mar 13, 2022 | Casalarreina 0-1 Alfaro | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Oct 31, 2021 | Alfaro 1-0 Casalarreina | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Nov 16, 2019 | Casalarreina 2-1 Alfaro | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
Last archived meeting: Casalarreina vs Alfaro on Mar 29, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Casalarreina score 1.3 and concede 2.2 goals per match over their last 15; Alfaro score 1.1 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casalarreina | 1.3 | 2.2 | 2 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Alfaro | 1.1 | 2.0 | 2 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Casalarreina vs Alfaro?
- The Footlab model makes Alfaro the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 34% for Casalarreina.
- Where and when is Casalarreina vs Alfaro played?
- Casalarreina vs Alfaro is played on October 11, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal El Soto, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 16.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.