FAS vs Inca Aruba: prediction and stats
Primera DivisionApertura - 14Kick-off on October 5, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Óscar Alberto Quiteño, Santa Ana
The Footlab model makes FAS the favourite at 83%, against 13% for a draw and 5% for Inca Aruba. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FAS vs Inca Aruba?
FAS starts as the favourite with a 286-point Elo edge (1,793 vs 1,507).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FAS have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Inca Aruba have 0, 1 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Águila(home) | 1-0 | Primera Division |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Municipal(home) | 1-1 | CONCACAF Central American Cup |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Platense(away) | 1-2 | Primera Division |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Verdes(home) | 4-1 | CONCACAF Central American Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Atletico Balboa(home) | 1-1 | Primera Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Inter(away) | 1-4 | Primera Division |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Firpo(home) | 0-0 | Primera Division |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Platense(away) | 0-2 | Primera Division |
| Aug 2, 2026 | FAS(home) | 0-4 | Primera Division |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Municipal Limeño(away) | 0-2 | Primera Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 1 FAS win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Inca Aruba win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 2, 2026 | Inca Aruba 0-4 FAS | Primera Division |
How many goals should we expect?
FAS score 1.5 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Inca Aruba score 0.3 and concede 2.5. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FAS | 1.5 | 0.8 | 5 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
| Inca Aruba | 0.3 | 2.5 | 1 | 2/6 | 3/6 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FAS sit 4th in Primera Division (10 points from 6 matches) and Inca Aruba sit 12th (1 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | FAS | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 10 |
| 12 | Inca Aruba | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 15 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FAS vs Inca Aruba?
- The Footlab model makes FAS the favourite at 83%, against 13% for a draw and 5% for Inca Aruba.
- Where and when is FAS vs Inca Aruba played?
- FAS vs Inca Aruba is played on October 5, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio Óscar Alberto Quiteño, in the Primera Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.