Aljustrelense vs Vitoria Setubal: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group DGroup D - 24Kick-off on April 4, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal de Aljustrel, Aljustrel
The Footlab model makes Vitoria Setubal the favourite at 49%, against 27% for a draw and 24% for Aljustrelense. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aljustrelense vs Vitoria Setubal?
Vitoria Setubal starts as the favourite with a 260-point Elo edge (1,880 vs 1,620).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aljustrelense have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Vitoria Setubal have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Sintrense(away) | 0-4 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Lagoa(home) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Apr 10, 2021 | Vitoria Setubal(away) | 0-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H |
| Apr 3, 2021 | Moura(home) | 2-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H |
| Mar 14, 2021 | Louletano(home) | 1-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Amora(home) | 1-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Aug 16, 2026 | FC Serpa(away) | 2-4 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Jun 10, 2024 | Amarante(home) | 0-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round |
| Jun 1, 2024 | Lusitânia(away) | 1-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round |
| May 25, 2024 | Moncarapachense(home) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Aljustrelense win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Vitoria Setubal win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 2021 | Vitoria Setubal 2-0 Aljustrelense | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H |
| Jan 10, 2021 | Aljustrelense 1-5 Vitoria Setubal | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H |
Last archived meeting: Vitoria Setubal vs Aljustrelense on Apr 10, 2021
How many goals should we expect?
Aljustrelense score 0.7 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Vitoria Setubal score 1.5 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aljustrelense | 0.7 | 2.0 | 3 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Vitoria Setubal | 1.5 | 1.4 | 5 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vitoria Setubal | 26 | 16 | 5 | 5 | 45 | 21 | 53 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aljustrelense vs Vitoria Setubal?
- The Footlab model makes Vitoria Setubal the favourite at 49%, against 27% for a draw and 24% for Aljustrelense.
- Where and when is Aljustrelense vs Vitoria Setubal played?
- Aljustrelense vs Vitoria Setubal is played on April 4, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal de Aljustrel, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.