Almería II vs Atlético Porcuna: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Group 9 - 4Kick-off on September 27, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Anexo Estadio de los Juegos del Mediterráneo, Almería
The Footlab model makes Almería II the favourite at 48%, against 29% for a draw and 24% for Atlético Porcuna. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Almería II vs Atlético Porcuna?
A very open match: only 38 Elo points separate Almería II (1,755) and Atlético Porcuna (1,716).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Almería II have 1 wins, 5 draws and 9 defeats; Atlético Porcuna have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Águilas(away) | 0-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Deportiva Minera(home) | 3-4 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Yeclano(away) | 1-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Estepona(home) | 1-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 5, 2026 | Lorca Deportiva(home) | 1-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Motril(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 3, 2026 | Torre del Mar(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | El Palo(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | UD San Pedro(home) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Alhaurino(away) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Almería II win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Atlético Porcuna win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2023 | Atlético Porcuna 1-2 Almería II | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Sep 18, 2022 | Almería II 2-0 Atlético Porcuna | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 17, 2022 | Almería II 5-0 Atlético Porcuna | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Dec 12, 2021 | Atlético Porcuna 3-2 Almería II | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Mar 13, 2021 | Atlético Porcuna 2-1 Almería II | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Dec 5, 2020 | Almería II 1-4 Atlético Porcuna | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
Last archived meeting: Atlético Porcuna vs Almería II on Jan 15, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Almería II score 0.9 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Atlético Porcuna score 1.2 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almería II | 0.9 | 1.7 | 0 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
| Atlético Porcuna | 1.2 | 1.2 | 5 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Atlético Porcuna | 34 | 14 | 4 | 16 | 41 | 39 | 46 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Almería II vs Atlético Porcuna?
- The Footlab model makes Almería II the favourite at 48%, against 29% for a draw and 24% for Atlético Porcuna.
- Where and when is Almería II vs Atlético Porcuna played?
- Almería II vs Atlético Porcuna is played on September 27, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Anexo Estadio de los Juegos del Mediterráneo, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 9.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.