Match

Almería II vs Atlético Porcuna: prediction and stats

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Group 9 - 4Kick-off on September 27, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Anexo Estadio de los Juegos del Mediterráneo, Almería

Almería IIAtlético Porcuna

The Footlab model makes Almería II the favourite at 48%, against 29% for a draw and 24% for Atlético Porcuna. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Almería II vs Atlético Porcuna?

A very open match: only 38 Elo points separate Almería II (1,755) and Atlético Porcuna (1,716).

Almería II win48 %
Draw29 %
Atlético Porcuna win24 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Almería II have 1 wins, 5 draws and 9 defeats; Atlético Porcuna have 7, 2 and 6.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Almería II
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
May 3, 2026Águilas(away)0-2Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Apr 26, 2026Deportiva Minera(home)3-4Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Apr 19, 2026Yeclano(away)1-1Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Apr 11, 2026Estepona(home)1-2Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Apr 5, 2026Lorca Deportiva(home)1-1Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Atlético Porcuna
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
May 10, 2026Motril(away)1-2Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
May 3, 2026Torre del Mar(home)1-0Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
Apr 25, 2026El Palo(away)2-1Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
Apr 19, 2026UD San Pedro(home)2-3Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
Apr 12, 2026Alhaurino(away)0-3Tercera División RFEF - Group 9

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Almería II win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Atlético Porcuna win(s).

DateScoreCompetition
Jan 15, 2023Atlético Porcuna 1-2 Almería IITercera División RFEF - Group 9
Sep 18, 2022Almería II 2-0 Atlético PorcunaTercera División RFEF - Group 9
Apr 17, 2022Almería II 5-0 Atlético PorcunaTercera División RFEF - Group 9
Dec 12, 2021Atlético Porcuna 3-2 Almería IITercera División RFEF - Group 9
Mar 13, 2021Atlético Porcuna 2-1 Almería IITercera División RFEF - Group 9
Dec 5, 2020Almería II 1-4 Atlético PorcunaTercera División RFEF - Group 9

Last archived meeting: Atlético Porcuna vs Almería II on Jan 15, 2023

How many goals should we expect?

Almería II score 0.9 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Atlético Porcuna score 1.2 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Almería II0.91.709/156/15
Atlético Porcuna1.21.257/158/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
9Atlético Porcuna3414416413946

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Almería II vs Atlético Porcuna?
The Footlab model makes Almería II the favourite at 48%, against 29% for a draw and 24% for Atlético Porcuna.
Where and when is Almería II vs Atlético Porcuna played?
Almería II vs Atlético Porcuna is played on September 27, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Anexo Estadio de los Juegos del Mediterráneo, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 9.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

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Next match: Almería II and Atlético Porcuna

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