Where and when is Marbelli vs Torre del Mar played?

Marbelli vs Torre del Mar is played on September 27, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 9.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 28% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Marbelli vs Torre del Mar: prediction and stats

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Group 9 - 4Kick-off on September 27, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal, San Pedro de Alcántara

Marbelli

Torre del Mar

The Footlab model makes Marbelli the favourite at 40%, against 34% for a draw and 26% for Torre del Mar. The most likely score is 0-0.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Marbelli vs Torre del Mar?

A very open match: only 26 Elo points separate Marbelli (1,773) and Torre del Mar (1,798).

Marbelli win40 %

Draw34 %

Torre del Mar win26 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Marbelli have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Torre del Mar have 4, 6 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Marbelli
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 10, 2026	Ciudad de Torredonjimeno(away)	2-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
May 3, 2026	Granada II(home)	0-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
Apr 26, 2026	Huétor Vega(away)	1-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
Apr 19, 2026	Huétor Tájar(home)	2-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
Apr 11, 2026	UD Melilla II(away)	1-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9

Torre del Mar
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 24, 2026	Arenas Armilla(home)	0-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
May 17, 2026	Arenas Armilla(away)	0-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
May 10, 2026	Torreperogil(home)	1-2	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
May 3, 2026	Atlético Porcuna(away)	0-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
Apr 26, 2026	Motril(home)	2-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Marbelli win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Torre del Mar win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Apr 1, 2026	Torre del Mar 0-0 Marbelli	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
Sep 28, 2025	Marbelli 1-2 Torre del Mar	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
Jan 26, 2025	Torre del Mar 1-2 Marbelli	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
Sep 15, 2024	Marbelli 0-1 Torre del Mar	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9

Last archived meeting: Torre del Mar vs Marbelli on Apr 1, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Marbelli score 0.9 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Torre del Mar score 0.7 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 28% probability of over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Marbelli	0.9	0.7	7	6/15	4/15
Torre del Mar	0.7	0.8	6	6/15	4/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Marbelli sit 6th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 (51 points from 34 matches) and Torre del Mar sit 3rd (55 points from 34 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
3	Torre del Mar	34	14	13	7	37	26	55
6	Marbelli	34	14	9	11	36	28	51

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Marbelli vs Torre del Mar?: The Footlab model makes Marbelli the favourite at 40%, against 34% for a draw and 26% for Torre del Mar.
Where and when is Marbelli vs Torre del Mar played?: Marbelli vs Torre del Mar is played on September 27, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 9.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 28% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.