Where and when is Melilla vs Malaga City played?

Melilla vs Malaga City is played on September 27, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Álvarez Claro, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 9.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Melilla vs Malaga City: prediction and stats

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Group 9 - 4Kick-off on September 27, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Álvarez Claro, Melilla

Melilla

Malaga City

The Footlab model makes Melilla the favourite at 62%, against 24% for a draw and 14% for Malaga City. The most likely score is 1-0.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Melilla vs Malaga City?

Melilla starts as the favourite with a 215-point Elo edge (1,808 vs 1,594).

Melilla win62 %

Draw24 %

Malaga City win14 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Melilla have 3 wins, 4 draws and 8 defeats; Malaga City have 2, 2 and 11.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Melilla
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 3, 2026	Málaga II(away)	3-3	Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Apr 26, 2026	Linares Deportivo(home)	2-4	Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Apr 19, 2026	Recreativo Huelva(away)	0-1	Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Apr 12, 2026	Águilas(home)	0-1	Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Apr 5, 2026	Estepona(away)	1-1	Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

Malaga City
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 11, 2025	Arenas Armilla(away)	2-3	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
May 4, 2025	Polideportivo Almería(home)	3-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
May 1, 2025	Real Jaén(away)	0-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
Apr 27, 2025	Mancha Real(home)	4-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
Apr 12, 2025	Mijas Las Lagunas(away)	0-4	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9

How many goals should we expect?

Melilla score 1.2 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Malaga City score 1.0 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Melilla	1.2	1.5	2	8/15	7/15
Malaga City	1.0	2.0	0	8/15	10/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Melilla vs Malaga City?: The Footlab model makes Melilla the favourite at 62%, against 24% for a draw and 14% for Malaga City.
Where and when is Melilla vs Malaga City played?: Melilla vs Malaga City is played on September 27, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Álvarez Claro, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 9.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.