Match

Almeria vs Leganes: prediction and stats

Segunda DivisiónRegular Season - 9Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 02:15 PM (UTC)Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos, Almería

AlmeriaLeganes

The Footlab AI model makes Almeria the favourite at 64%, against 22% for a draw and 14% for Leganes. The most likely score is 2-0.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Almeria vs Leganes?

Almeria starts as the favourite with a 158-point Elo edge (2,003 vs 1,845).

64%22%14%
Almeria winDrawLeganes win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Almeria vs Leganes

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Almeria

4-2-3-1
  1. 24Miguel de la Fuente
  1. 14Javi Muñoz
  2. 17B. Cipenga
  3. 6Mikel Vesga
  4. 11Sergio Arribas
  5. 12Léo Baptistão
  1. 18F. Bonini
  2. 21Chumi
  3. 2Marcos Luna
  4. 15Leonardo Lelo
  1. 1Andrés Fernández

Leganes

3-5-2
  1. 19P. Soko
  2. 21Álvaro Morata
  1. 8Y. Kechta
  2. 20Miguel Atienza
  3. 11Naim García
  4. 22Álex Sancris
  5. 17Ismaël Gharbi
  1. 2Marvel
  2. 6Lalo Aguilar
  3. 3Javi Montero
  1. 13L. Zidane

Computed on October 8, 2026 at 05:23 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Almeria have 9 wins, 1 draw and 5 defeats; Leganes have 6, 4 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Almeria
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 3, 2026Burgos(home)2-1Segunda División
Sep 27, 2026Mallorca(away)1-0Segunda División
Sep 20, 2026Celta de Vigo II(home)2-0Segunda División
Sep 12, 2026Cordoba(away)2-0Segunda División
Sep 6, 2026Cadiz(home)3-2Segunda División
Leganes
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 3, 2026Cadiz(away)0-4Segunda División
Sep 28, 2026Castellón(home)0-2Segunda División
Sep 20, 2026Granada CF(home)3-2Segunda División
Sep 13, 2026Tenerife(away)0-2Segunda División
Sep 4, 2026Las Palmas(away)0-0Segunda División

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Almeria wins, 2 draws, 1 Leganes win.

DateScoreCompetition
Apr 5, 2026Almeria 2-1 LeganesSegunda División
Nov 22, 2025Leganes 0-3 AlmeriaSegunda División
Jan 15, 2025Almeria 2-3 LeganesCopa del Rey
May 29, 2022Leganes 2-2 AlmeriaSegunda División
Oct 29, 2021Almeria 1-0 LeganesSegunda División
Mar 27, 2021Almeria 1-1 LeganesSegunda División

Last archived meeting: Almeria vs Leganes on Apr 5, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Almeria score 1.5 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Leganes score 0.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Almeria1.50.874/156/15
Leganes0.91.174/155/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Almeria sit 3rd in Segunda División (18 points from 8 matches) and Leganes sit 13th (11 points from 8 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
3Almeria860213518
13Leganes832361111

A question about Almeria vs Leganes?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Almeria vs Leganes?
The Footlab AI model makes Almeria the favourite at 64%, against 22% for a draw and 14% for Leganes.
Where and when is Almeria vs Leganes played?
Almeria vs Leganes is played on October 11, 2026 at 02:15 PM (UTC) at Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos, in the Segunda División.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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