Almudévar vs Brea: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Group 17 - 16Kick-off on December 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Virgen de la Corona, Almudévar
The Footlab model makes Almudévar the favourite at 44%, against 30% for a draw and 27% for Brea. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Almudévar vs Brea?
A very open match: only 51 Elo points separate Almudévar (1,717) and Brea (1,667).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Almudévar have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Brea have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Huesca II(home) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 |
| May 3, 2026 | Cuarte(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 |
| Apr 23, 2026 | Illueca(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Caspe(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Binéfar(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2025 | Caspe(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 |
| May 4, 2025 | Ebro(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Cuarte(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 |
| Apr 18, 2025 | Belchite 97(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Épila(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 2 Almudévar win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Brea win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2025 | Brea 1-2 Almudévar | Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 |
| Oct 13, 2024 | Almudévar 2-1 Brea | Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 |
| Feb 7, 2021 | Brea 4-0 Almudévar | Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 |
| Nov 15, 2020 | Almudévar 1-1 Brea | Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 |
| Jan 5, 2020 | Brea 2-0 Almudévar | Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 |
How many goals should we expect?
Almudévar score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Brea score 0.5 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almudévar | 1.1 | 1.3 | 4 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Brea | 0.5 | 1.1 | 5 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Almudévar | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 34 | 39 | 44 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Almudévar vs Brea?
- The Footlab model makes Almudévar the favourite at 44%, against 30% for a draw and 27% for Brea.
- Where and when is Almudévar vs Brea played?
- Almudévar vs Brea is played on December 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Virgen de la Corona, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 17.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.