Alpendorada vs Ovarense: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group BGroup B - 20Kick-off on February 28, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal de Alpendorada, Alpendurada e Matos
The Footlab AI model makes Ovarense the favourite at 55%, against 25% for a draw and 20% for Alpendorada. The most likely score is 1-1. If Ovarense wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.0% of the 5,337 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 11, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Alpendorada vs Ovarense?
On Elo ratings, Alpendorada has 1,848 points and Ovarense 1,902.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Alpendorada vs Ovarense
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Alpendorada
4-3-3- 12Fábio Rodrigo
- 29R. Teixeira
- 45Pauleta
- 17S. Njoh
- 36D. Parini
- 25Danny
- 23Pepe
- 14Marcos Valente
- 3G. Zuzarte
- 13R. Gramoso
- 24C. Silva
Ovarense
Not enough data to predict the Ovarense lineup.
Computed on November 11, 2026 at 10:12 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Alpendorada have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Ovarense have 8, 3 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Ovarense(away) | 1-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Castro Daire(home) | 2-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Casa Pia(home) | 0-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Cinfães(away) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Mação(home) | 3-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Florgrade(away) | 3-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Alpendorada(home) | 2-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Salgueiros(away) | 2-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Beira-Mar(home) | 2-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Os Marialvas(home) | 0-1 | Taça de Portugal |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 0 Alpendorada wins, 0 draws, 1 Ovarense win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Ovarense 2-1 Alpendorada | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
Last archived meeting: Ovarense vs Alpendorada on Nov 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Alpendorada score 1.4 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Ovarense score 2.2 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alpendorada | 1.4 | 1.3 | 6 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Ovarense | 2.2 | 0.8 | 5 | 7/12 | 6/12 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Alpendorada sit 12th in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B (5 points from 7 matches) and Ovarense sit 1st (19 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ovarense | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 19 |
| 12 | Alpendorada | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 5 |
A question about Alpendorada vs Ovarense?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Alpendorada vs Ovarense?
- The Footlab AI model makes Ovarense the favourite at 55%, against 25% for a draw and 20% for Alpendorada.
- Where and when is Alpendorada vs Ovarense played?
- Alpendorada vs Ovarense is played on February 28, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal de Alpendorada, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.0% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.