Altamira vs Gavião: prediction and stats
Paraense A3Regular Season - 5Kick-off on October 2, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Altamira the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for Gavião. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Altamira vs Gavião?
A very open match: only 56 Elo points separate Altamira (1,584) and Gavião (1,527).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 4 matches in all competitions, Altamira have 0 wins, 1 draws and 3 defeats; Gavião have 2, 4 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2025 | Atletico Paraense(home) | 1-2 | Paraense A3 |
| Oct 15, 2025 | Gavião(away) | 1-3 | Paraense A3 |
| Oct 11, 2025 | Atletico Paraense(away) | 0-2 | Paraense A3 |
| Sep 28, 2025 | Gavião(home) | 0-0 | Paraense A3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 19, 2025 | Atletico Paraense(away) | 1-3 | Paraense A3 |
| Nov 14, 2025 | Atletico Paraense(home) | 1-2 | Paraense A3 |
| Nov 8, 2025 | Sport Belem(away) | 0-1 | Paraense A3 |
| Nov 3, 2025 | Sport Belem(home) | 1-0 | Paraense A3 |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Atletico Paraense(away) | 0-3 | Paraense A3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Altamira win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Gavião win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2025 | Gavião 3-1 Altamira | Paraense A3 |
| Sep 28, 2025 | Altamira 0-0 Gavião | Paraense A3 |
How many goals should we expect?
Altamira score 0.5 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 4; Gavião score 0.9 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Altamira | 0.5 | 1.8 | 1 | 2/4 | 2/4 |
| Gavião | 0.9 | 2.1 | 2 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 4 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Altamira sit 3rd in Paraense A3 (1 points from 4 matches) and Gavião sit 2nd (4 points from 4 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Gavião | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 |
| 3 | Altamira | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Altamira vs Gavião?
- The Footlab model makes Altamira the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for Gavião.
- Where and when is Altamira vs Gavião played?
- Altamira vs Gavião is played on October 2, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC), in the Paraense A3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.