Alvechurch vs Bury Town: prediction and stats
Non League Premier - Southern CentralRegular Season - 11Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Lye Meadow, Alvechurch, Worcestershire
The Footlab model makes Bury Town the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Alvechurch. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Alvechurch vs Bury Town?
A very open match: only 75 Elo points separate Alvechurch (1,805) and Bury Town (1,881).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Alvechurch have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Bury Town have 7, 6 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Bishop's Stortford(away) | 3-0 | Non League Premier - Southern Central |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Needham Market(home) | 2-0 | Non League Premier - Southern Central |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Worcester City(home) | 3-1 | Non League Premier - Southern Central |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Kettering Town(away) | 0-1 | Non League Premier - Southern Central |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Kidderminster Harriers(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Leamington(home) | 3-0 | Non League Premier - Southern Central |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Stratford Town(away) | 3-1 | Non League Premier - Southern Central |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Stamford(away) | 1-0 | Non League Premier - Southern Central |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Halesowen Town(home) | 1-0 | Non League Premier - Southern Central |
| Aug 1, 2026 | AFC Sudbury(home) | 3-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Alvechurch win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Bury Town win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | Alvechurch 1-3 Bury Town | Non League Premier - Southern Central |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Bury Town 0-1 Alvechurch | Non League Premier - Southern Central |
Last archived meeting: Alvechurch vs Bury Town on Jan 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Alvechurch score 1.4 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Bury Town score 1.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvechurch | 1.4 | 0.9 | 4 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
| Bury Town | 1.9 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Alvechurch sit 3rd in Non League Premier - Southern Central (6 points from 3 matches) and Bury Town sit 2nd (9 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Bury Town | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | Alvechurch | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Alvechurch vs Bury Town?
- The Footlab model makes Bury Town the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Alvechurch.
- Where and when is Alvechurch vs Bury Town played?
- Alvechurch vs Bury Town is played on October 10, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Lye Meadow, in the Non League Premier - Southern Central.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 10, 2026Hitchin TownvsPeterborough Sports
- Oct 10, 2026StourbridgevsLeighton Town
- Oct 10, 2026Banbury UnitedvsStamford
- Oct 10, 2026Needham MarketvsAnstey Nomads
- Oct 10, 2026Redditch UnitedvsBishop's Stortford
- Oct 10, 2026Rushall OlympicvsWorcester City
- Oct 10, 2026Stratford TownvsLeamington
- Oct 10, 2026Kettering TownvsHalesowen Town