Ammanford AFC vs Caernarfon Town: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 8Kick-off on September 11, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Ammanford Recreation Ground, Ammanford
The Footlab model makes Caernarfon Town the favourite at 54%, against 24% for a draw and 22% for Ammanford AFC. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ammanford AFC vs Caernarfon Town?
Caernarfon Town starts as the favourite with a 249-point Elo edge (1,910 vs 1,661).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ammanford AFC have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Caernarfon Town have 9, 0 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | GAP Connah S Quay FC(home) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Airbus UK(away) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Colwyn Bay(home) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Briton Ferry(away) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Cwmbran Celtic(away) | 2-1 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Trefelin(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Colwyn Bay(home) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Penybont(home) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | GAP Connah S Quay FC(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Jul 16, 2026 | FC Levadia Tallinn(away) | 0-5 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Ammanford AFC win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Caernarfon Town win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2020 | Ammanford AFC 0-4 Caernarfon Town | Welsh Cup |
Last archived meeting: Ammanford AFC vs Caernarfon Town on Jan 24, 2020
How many goals should we expect?
Ammanford AFC score 1.6 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Caernarfon Town score 1.7 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ammanford AFC | 1.6 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Caernarfon Town | 1.7 | 1.7 | 6 | 6/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ammanford AFC sit 12th in Premier League (1 points from 4 matches) and Caernarfon Town sit 6th (9 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Caernarfon Town | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 9 |
| 12 | Ammanford AFC | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ammanford AFC vs Caernarfon Town?
- The Footlab model makes Caernarfon Town the favourite at 54%, against 24% for a draw and 22% for Ammanford AFC.
- Where and when is Ammanford AFC vs Caernarfon Town played?
- Ammanford AFC vs Caernarfon Town is played on September 11, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Ammanford Recreation Ground, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.