Aoiz vs Izarra: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Group 15 - 12Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio San Miguel, Agoitz (Aoiz)
The Footlab model makes Izarra the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Aoiz. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aoiz vs Izarra?
Izarra starts as the favourite with a 137-point Elo edge (1,846 vs 1,709).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aoiz have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Izarra have 6, 6 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Izarra(home) | 1-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 |
| May 3, 2026 | Avance Ezcabarte(away) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Bidezarra(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Ardoi(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Txantrea(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 6, 2026 | Pamplona(away) | 1-5 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 |
| May 30, 2026 | Pamplona(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 |
| May 24, 2026 | Subiza(home) | 4-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 |
| May 17, 2026 | Subiza(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 |
| May 9, 2026 | Aoiz(away) | 4-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Aoiz win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Izarra win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Aoiz 1-4 Izarra | Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 |
| Jan 10, 2026 | Izarra 1-1 Aoiz | Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 |
How many goals should we expect?
Aoiz score 0.9 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Izarra score 1.5 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aoiz | 0.9 | 1.5 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Izarra | 1.5 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Aoiz sit 14th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 (36 points from 33 matches) and Izarra sit 3rd (61 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Izarra | 34 | 16 | 13 | 5 | 64 | 31 | 61 |
| 14 | Aoiz | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 42 | 47 | 36 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aoiz vs Izarra?
- The Footlab model makes Izarra the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Aoiz.
- Where and when is Aoiz vs Izarra played?
- Aoiz vs Izarra is played on November 21, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio San Miguel, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 15.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.