APS Bomet vs Mara Sugar: prediction and stats
FKF Premier LeagueRegular Season - 17Kick-off on December 20, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Bomet Stadium, Bomet
The Footlab AI model makes APS Bomet the favourite at 39%, against 32% for a draw and 29% for Mara Sugar. The most likely score is 0-0. If APS Bomet wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win APS Bomet vs Mara Sugar?
A very open match: only 39 Elo points separate APS Bomet (1,525) and Mara Sugar (1,487).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for APS Bomet vs Mara Sugar
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
APS Bomet
Not enough data to predict the APS Bomet lineup.
Mara Sugar
Not enough data to predict the Mara Sugar lineup.
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 09:27 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, APS Bomet have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; Mara Sugar have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Mathare United(away) | 0-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 31, 2026 | Tusker(away) | 1-1 | FKF Premier League |
| May 24, 2026 | AFC Leopards(home) | 2-1 | FKF Premier League |
| May 20, 2026 | Bandari(away) | 2-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 10, 2026 | Mathare United(away) | 2-0 | FKF Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | 3K(away) | 2-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 31, 2026 | Murang'a SEAL(away) | 1-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 27, 2026 | GOR Mahia(home) | 0-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 16, 2026 | Mathare United(home) | 0-1 | FKF Premier League |
| May 13, 2026 | Shabana(home) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 APS Bomet wins, 2 draws, 0 Mara Sugar wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | Mara Sugar 0-0 APS Bomet | FKF Premier League |
| Jan 10, 2026 | APS Bomet 1-1 Mara Sugar | FKF Premier League |
| Jul 13, 2022 | APS Bomet 1-0 Mara Sugar | Super League |
| Jan 21, 2022 | Mara Sugar 0-1 APS Bomet | Super League |
Last archived meeting: Mara Sugar vs APS Bomet on Mar 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
APS Bomet score 1.0 and concede 0.4 goals per match over their last 15; Mara Sugar score 0.9 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 33% probability of over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| APS Bomet | 1.0 | 0.4 | 10 | 4/15 | 3/15 |
| Mara Sugar | 0.9 | 0.8 | 7 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
APS Bomet sit 11th in FKF Premier League (1 point from 1 match) and Mara Sugar sit 5th (1 point from 1 match).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Mara Sugar | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 11 | APS Bomet | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
A question about APS Bomet vs Mara Sugar?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for APS Bomet vs Mara Sugar?
- The Footlab AI model makes APS Bomet the favourite at 39%, against 32% for a draw and 29% for Mara Sugar.
- Where and when is APS Bomet vs Mara Sugar played?
- APS Bomet vs Mara Sugar is played on December 20, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Bomet Stadium, in the FKF Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 33% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.