Mathare United vs Shabana: prediction and stats
FKF Premier LeagueRegular Season - 17Kick-off on December 20, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Moi International Sports Centre, Nairobi
The Footlab AI model makes Shabana the favourite at 35%, against 33% for a draw and 32% for Mathare United. The most likely score is 0-0. If Shabana wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,451 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mathare United vs Shabana?
A very open match: only 75 Elo points separate Mathare United (1,459) and Shabana (1,534).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Mathare United vs Shabana
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Mathare United
Not enough data to predict the Mathare United lineup.
Shabana
Not enough data to predict the Shabana lineup.
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 10:47 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mathare United have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Shabana have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | APS Bomet(home) | 0-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 31, 2026 | Bandari(home) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 23, 2026 | Ulinzi Stars(away) | 1-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 16, 2026 | Mara Sugar(away) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 10, 2026 | APS Bomet(home) | 0-2 | FKF Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Posta Rangers FC(away) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 31, 2026 | KCB(home) | 1-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 24, 2026 | Sofapaka(away) | 1-1 | FKF Premier League |
| May 17, 2026 | Bidco United(away) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 13, 2026 | Mara Sugar(away) | 0-1 | FKF Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Mathare United wins, 1 draw, 1 Shabana win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2026 | Mathare United 0-1 Shabana | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Shabana 0-1 Mathare United | FKF Premier League |
| Feb 16, 2025 | Shabana 0-0 Mathare United | FKF Premier League |
| Dec 21, 2024 | Mathare United 1-0 Shabana | FKF Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Mathare United vs Shabana on Feb 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Mathare United score 1.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Shabana score 0.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 30% probability of over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mathare United | 1.1 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Shabana | 0.7 | 1.1 | 7 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mathare United sit 11th in FKF Premier League (1 point from 1 match) and Shabana sit 4th (3 points from 1 match).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shabana | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 11 | Mathare United | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
A question about Mathare United vs Shabana?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mathare United vs Shabana?
- The Footlab AI model makes Shabana the favourite at 35%, against 33% for a draw and 32% for Mathare United.
- Where and when is Mathare United vs Shabana played?
- Mathare United vs Shabana is played on December 20, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Moi International Sports Centre, in the FKF Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 30% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.