Aragvi Dusheti vs Gareji: prediction and stats
Erovnuli Liga 2Regular Season - 30Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Tsentraluri Stadioni, Dusheti
The Footlab model makes Aragvi Dusheti the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Gareji. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aragvi Dusheti vs Gareji?
A very open match: only 79 Elo points separate Aragvi Dusheti (1,472) and Gareji (1,551).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aragvi Dusheti have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Gareji have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Gori(home) | 1-0 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Gareji(away) | 2-0 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Samtredia(home) | 2-4 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Guria(away) | 2-1 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Kolkheti Poti(away) | 0-0 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Kolkheti Poti(home) | 3-2 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Aragvi Dusheti(home) | 0-2 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Telavi(away) | 0-0 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Gagra(home) | 1-4 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Basa(away) | 2-0 | David Kipiani Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Aragvi Dusheti win(s), 0 draw(s), 5 Gareji win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Gareji 0-2 Aragvi Dusheti | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| May 10, 2026 | Aragvi Dusheti 0-1 Gareji | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Mar 11, 2026 | Gareji 1-0 Aragvi Dusheti | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Oct 5, 2024 | Aragvi Dusheti 1-3 Gareji | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Aug 10, 2024 | Gareji 2-0 Aragvi Dusheti | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| May 1, 2024 | Aragvi Dusheti 3-5 Gareji | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
Last archived meeting: Gareji vs Aragvi Dusheti on Aug 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Aragvi Dusheti score 1.4 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Gareji score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aragvi Dusheti | 1.4 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
| Gareji | 1.3 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Aragvi Dusheti sit 5th in Erovnuli Liga 2 (31 points from 22 matches) and Gareji sit 1st (43 points from 22 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gareji | 22 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 27 | 16 | 43 |
| 5 | Aragvi Dusheti | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 23 | 27 | 31 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aragvi Dusheti vs Gareji?
- The Footlab model makes Aragvi Dusheti the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Gareji.
- Where and when is Aragvi Dusheti vs Gareji played?
- Aragvi Dusheti vs Gareji is played on October 24, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Tsentraluri Stadioni, in the Erovnuli Liga 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.