Arbroath vs Dunfermline: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 23Kick-off on January 23, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Gayfield Park, Arbroath
The Footlab AI model makes Dunfermline the favourite at 35%, against 30% for a draw and 35% for Arbroath. The most likely score is 1-1. If Dunfermline wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,402 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Arbroath vs Dunfermline?
A very open match: only 99 Elo points separate Arbroath (1,653) and Dunfermline (1,752).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Arbroath vs Dunfermline
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Arbroath
4-2-3-1- 9A. Winter
- 20S. Constable
- 25J. MacIntyre
- 11R. Dow
- 14M. McKenna
- 8R. Flynn
- 26S. Mackie
- 16C. Watson
- 22C. Dewar
- 6T. Beadling
- 1A. McAdams
Dunfermline
3-4-3- 26A. Tod
- 99O. Adams
- 33J. Cooper
- 47R. Fraser
- 14A. Amade
- 24D. Lobban
- 19Allan Oyirwoth
- 6N. Abdulai
- 15S. Harding
- 25A. Donnelly
- 1A. Oxborough
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 12:25 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arbroath have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Dunfermline have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Morton(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Partick(away) | 0-3 | Championship |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Queen's Park(home) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Stenhousemuir(away) | 0-1 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Raith Rovers(away) | 0-4 | Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Ayr Utd(away) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Aberdeen(home) | 1-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Morton(away) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Queen's Park(home) | 2-0 | Championship |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Arbroath(away) | 1-1 | Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Arbroath wins, 3 draws, 1 Dunfermline win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | Arbroath 1-1 Dunfermline | Championship |
| May 8, 2026 | Arbroath 0-0 Dunfermline | Premiership |
| May 5, 2026 | Dunfermline 1-0 Arbroath | Premiership |
| May 1, 2026 | Dunfermline 0-0 Arbroath | Championship |
| Feb 21, 2026 | Arbroath 4-2 Dunfermline | Championship |
| Dec 6, 2025 | Dunfermline 1-2 Arbroath | Championship |
Last archived meeting: Arbroath vs Dunfermline on Sep 5, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Arbroath score 0.9 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Dunfermline score 1.5 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arbroath | 0.9 | 1.5 | 3 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| Dunfermline | 1.5 | 1.0 | 7 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Arbroath sit 8th in Championship (11 points from 10 matches) and Dunfermline sit 5th (13 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Dunfermline | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 13 |
| 8 | Arbroath | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 11 |
A question about Arbroath vs Dunfermline?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Arbroath vs Dunfermline?
- The Footlab AI model makes Dunfermline the favourite at 35%, against 30% for a draw and 35% for Arbroath.
- Where and when is Arbroath vs Dunfermline played?
- Arbroath vs Dunfermline is played on January 23, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Gayfield Park, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.