Dunfermline vs Ayr Utd: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 24Kick-off on January 30, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)KDM Group East End Park, Dunfermline
The Footlab model makes Dunfermline the favourite at 48%, against 28% for a draw and 24% for Ayr Utd. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Dunfermline vs Ayr Utd?
A very open match: only 31 Elo points separate Dunfermline (1,787) and Ayr Utd (1,756).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Dunfermline have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Ayr Utd have 9, 1 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Livingston(away) | 0-2 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Ross County(home) | 1-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Ayr Utd(home) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Inverness CT(away) | 0-0 | Championship |
| Jul 26, 2026 | ST Mirren(away) | 1-0 | League Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Raith Rovers(away) | 0-2 | Championship |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Kilmarnock(away) | 2-3 | League Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Dunfermline(away) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Arbroath(home) | 2-0 | Championship |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Alloa Athletic(home) | 4-1 | League Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Dunfermline win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Ayr Utd win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Dunfermline 1-1 Ayr Utd | Championship |
| Apr 7, 2026 | Ayr Utd 0-3 Dunfermline | Championship |
| Dec 20, 2025 | Dunfermline 2-3 Ayr Utd | Championship |
| Oct 31, 2025 | Ayr Utd 0-1 Dunfermline | Championship |
| Sep 23, 2025 | Dunfermline 0-1 Ayr Utd | Championship |
| Mar 29, 2025 | Ayr Utd 3-0 Dunfermline | Championship |
Last archived meeting: Dunfermline vs Ayr Utd on Aug 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Dunfermline score 1.4 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Ayr Utd score 1.7 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dunfermline | 1.4 | 1.1 | 6 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Ayr Utd | 1.7 | 1.0 | 6 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Dunfermline sit 8th in Championship (2 points from 3 matches) and Ayr Utd sit 5th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Ayr Utd | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| 8 | Dunfermline | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Dunfermline vs Ayr Utd?
- The Footlab model makes Dunfermline the favourite at 48%, against 28% for a draw and 24% for Ayr Utd.
- Where and when is Dunfermline vs Ayr Utd played?
- Dunfermline vs Ayr Utd is played on January 30, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at KDM Group East End Park, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.