Arbroath vs Inverness CT: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 20Kick-off on December 26, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Gayfield Park, Arbroath
The Footlab model makes Inverness CT the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Arbroath. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Arbroath vs Inverness CT?
A very open match: only 95 Elo points separate Arbroath (1,726) and Inverness CT (1,821).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arbroath have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Inverness CT have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Morton(away) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Inverness CT(home) | 0-0 | Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Ayr Utd(away) | 0-2 | Championship |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Stirling Albion(home) | 1-0 | League Cup |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Montrose(home) | 0-2 | League Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Partick(home) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Heart Of Midlothian(away) | 2-6 | League Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Arbroath(away) | 0-0 | Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Dunfermline(home) | 0-0 | Championship |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Morton(away) | 1-0 | League Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Arbroath win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Inverness CT win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Arbroath 0-0 Inverness CT | Championship |
| Apr 26, 2025 | Inverness CT 3-0 Arbroath | League One |
| Feb 8, 2025 | Arbroath 3-0 Inverness CT | League One |
| Dec 14, 2024 | Inverness CT 0-2 Arbroath | League One |
| Oct 5, 2024 | Arbroath 1-0 Inverness CT | League One |
| Jul 23, 2024 | Inverness CT 0-0 Arbroath | League Cup |
Last archived meeting: Arbroath vs Inverness CT on Aug 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Arbroath score 0.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Inverness CT score 1.5 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arbroath | 0.9 | 1.1 | 5 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Inverness CT | 1.5 | 1.3 | 5 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Arbroath sit 6th in Championship (4 points from 3 matches) and Inverness CT sit 7th (3 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Arbroath | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| 7 | Inverness CT | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Arbroath vs Inverness CT?
- The Footlab model makes Inverness CT the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Arbroath.
- Where and when is Arbroath vs Inverness CT played?
- Arbroath vs Inverness CT is played on December 26, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Gayfield Park, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.