Ayr Utd vs Morton: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 20Kick-off on December 26, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Somerset Park, Ayr
The Footlab AI model makes Ayr Utd the favourite at 59%, against 25% for a draw and 16% for Morton. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ayr Utd vs Morton?
Ayr Utd starts as the favourite with a 146-point Elo edge (1,701 vs 1,554).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Ayr Utd vs Morton
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Ayr Utd
3-4-3- 12Olly Whyte
- 7O. Stirton
- 11R. Taylor
- 6R. Lyon
- 33S. McMann
- 32D. Watret
- 20L. McBeth
- 5K. Holt
- 3L. Dick
- 8L. King
- 1H. Stone
Morton
4-2-3-1- 7M. Garrity
- 21G. Gillespie
- 20C. Sandilands
- 27I. Wilson
- 19Kerr Robertson
- 17Sahil Bashir
- 2C. Ballantyne
- 4Christopher Cupps
- 6C. Okike
- 3J. Longridge
- 1Elyh Harrison
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 08:36 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ayr Utd have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Morton have 1, 2 and 12.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Dunfermline(home) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Livingston(away) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Stenhousemuir(home) | 0-1 | Championship |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Queen's Park(away) | 2-0 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Inverness CT(home) | 1-3 | Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Arbroath(away) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Raith Rovers(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Inverness CT(away) | 0-2 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Dunfermline(home) | 0-1 | Championship |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Livingston(home) | 1-4 | Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Ayr Utd win, 3 draws, 2 Morton wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | Ayr Utd 1-1 Morton | Championship |
| Mar 21, 2026 | Ayr Utd 0-1 Morton | Championship |
| Dec 27, 2025 | Morton 1-1 Ayr Utd | Championship |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Ayr Utd 2-1 Morton | Championship |
| Aug 23, 2025 | Morton 2-2 Ayr Utd | Championship |
| Mar 8, 2025 | Morton 2-1 Ayr Utd | Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Ayr Utd score 1.5 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Morton score 0.5 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ayr Utd | 1.5 | 1.1 | 4 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
| Morton | 0.5 | 1.7 | 1 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ayr Utd sit 7th in Championship (12 points from 10 matches) and Morton sit 10th (4 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Ayr Utd | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
| 10 | Morton | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 18 | 4 |
A question about Ayr Utd vs Morton?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ayr Utd vs Morton?
- The Footlab AI model makes Ayr Utd the favourite at 59%, against 25% for a draw and 16% for Morton.
- Where and when is Ayr Utd vs Morton played?
- Ayr Utd vs Morton is played on December 26, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Somerset Park, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.