Arbroath vs Raith Rovers: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 13Kick-off on October 31, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Gayfield Park, Arbroath
The Footlab model makes Arbroath the favourite at 36%, against 32% for a draw and 32% for Raith Rovers. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Arbroath vs Raith Rovers?
A very open match: only 85 Elo points separate Arbroath (1,726) and Raith Rovers (1,811).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arbroath have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Raith Rovers have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Morton(away) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Inverness CT(home) | 0-0 | Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Ayr Utd(away) | 0-2 | Championship |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Stirling Albion(home) | 1-0 | League Cup |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Montrose(home) | 0-2 | League Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ayr Utd(home) | 2-0 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Queen's Park(away) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Stenhousemuir(home) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Heart Of Midlothian(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Peterhead(home) | 1-0 | League Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Arbroath win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Raith Rovers win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2026 | Arbroath 2-1 Raith Rovers | Championship |
| Jan 10, 2026 | Raith Rovers 2-3 Arbroath | Championship |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Arbroath 0-0 Raith Rovers | Championship |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Raith Rovers 3-0 Arbroath | Championship |
| May 3, 2024 | Raith Rovers 5-0 Arbroath | Championship |
| Mar 1, 2024 | Arbroath 3-2 Raith Rovers | Championship |
Last archived meeting: Arbroath vs Raith Rovers on Apr 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Arbroath score 0.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Raith Rovers score 1.7 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 35% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arbroath | 0.9 | 1.1 | 5 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Raith Rovers | 1.7 | 0.9 | 5 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Arbroath sit 6th in Championship (4 points from 3 matches) and Raith Rovers sit 2nd (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Raith Rovers | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | Arbroath | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Arbroath vs Raith Rovers?
- The Footlab model makes Arbroath the favourite at 36%, against 32% for a draw and 32% for Raith Rovers.
- Where and when is Arbroath vs Raith Rovers played?
- Arbroath vs Raith Rovers is played on October 31, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Gayfield Park, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 35% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.