Dunfermline vs Arbroath: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 15Kick-off on November 14, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)KDM Group East End Park, Dunfermline
The Footlab AI model makes Dunfermline the favourite at 56%, against 27% for a draw and 17% for Arbroath. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Dunfermline vs Arbroath?
Dunfermline starts as the favourite with a 100-point Elo edge (1,804 vs 1,705).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Dunfermline vs Arbroath
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Dunfermline
3-4-3- 26A. Tod
- 99O. Adams
- 33J. Cooper
- 47R. Fraser
- 14A. Amade
- 24D. Lobban
- 19Allan Oyirwoth
- 6N. Abdulai
- 15S. Harding
- 25A. Donnelly
- 1A. Oxborough
Arbroath
4-2-3-1- 9A. Winter
- 20S. Constable
- 25J. MacIntyre
- 11R. Dow
- 14M. McKenna
- 8R. Flynn
- 26S. Mackie
- 16C. Watson
- 22C. Dewar
- 6T. Beadling
- 1A. McAdams
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 08:58 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Dunfermline have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Arbroath have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Ayr Utd(away) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Aberdeen(home) | 1-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Morton(away) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Queen's Park(home) | 2-0 | Championship |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Arbroath(away) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Morton(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Partick(away) | 0-3 | Championship |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Queen's Park(home) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Stenhousemuir(away) | 0-1 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Raith Rovers(away) | 0-4 | Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Dunfermline win, 3 draws, 2 Arbroath wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | Arbroath 1-1 Dunfermline | Championship |
| May 8, 2026 | Arbroath 0-0 Dunfermline | Premiership |
| May 5, 2026 | Dunfermline 1-0 Arbroath | Premiership |
| May 1, 2026 | Dunfermline 0-0 Arbroath | Championship |
| Feb 21, 2026 | Arbroath 4-2 Dunfermline | Championship |
| Dec 6, 2025 | Dunfermline 1-2 Arbroath | Championship |
Last archived meeting: Arbroath vs Dunfermline on Sep 5, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Dunfermline score 1.5 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Arbroath score 0.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dunfermline | 1.5 | 1.0 | 7 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Arbroath | 0.9 | 1.5 | 3 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Dunfermline sit 6th in Championship (13 points from 8 matches) and Arbroath sit 8th (11 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Dunfermline | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 13 |
| 8 | Arbroath | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 11 |
A question about Dunfermline vs Arbroath?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Dunfermline vs Arbroath?
- The Footlab AI model makes Dunfermline the favourite at 56%, against 27% for a draw and 17% for Arbroath.
- Where and when is Dunfermline vs Arbroath played?
- Dunfermline vs Arbroath is played on November 14, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at KDM Group East End Park, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.