Raith Rovers vs Arbroath: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 6Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Stark's Park, Kirkcaldy
The Footlab model makes Raith Rovers the favourite at 52%, against 28% for a draw and 20% for Arbroath. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Raith Rovers vs Arbroath?
A very open match: only 86 Elo points separate Raith Rovers (1,811) and Arbroath (1,726).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Raith Rovers have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Arbroath have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ayr Utd(home) | 2-0 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Queen's Park(away) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Stenhousemuir(home) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Heart Of Midlothian(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Peterhead(home) | 1-0 | League Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Morton(away) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Inverness CT(home) | 0-0 | Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Ayr Utd(away) | 0-2 | Championship |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Stirling Albion(home) | 1-0 | League Cup |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Montrose(home) | 0-2 | League Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Raith Rovers win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Arbroath win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2026 | Arbroath 2-1 Raith Rovers | Championship |
| Jan 10, 2026 | Raith Rovers 2-3 Arbroath | Championship |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Arbroath 0-0 Raith Rovers | Championship |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Raith Rovers 3-0 Arbroath | Championship |
| May 3, 2024 | Raith Rovers 5-0 Arbroath | Championship |
| Mar 1, 2024 | Arbroath 3-2 Raith Rovers | Championship |
Last archived meeting: Arbroath vs Raith Rovers on Apr 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Raith Rovers score 1.7 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Arbroath score 0.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raith Rovers | 1.7 | 0.9 | 5 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Arbroath | 0.9 | 1.1 | 5 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Raith Rovers sit 2nd in Championship (7 points from 3 matches) and Arbroath sit 6th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Raith Rovers | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | Arbroath | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Raith Rovers vs Arbroath?
- The Footlab model makes Raith Rovers the favourite at 52%, against 28% for a draw and 20% for Arbroath.
- Where and when is Raith Rovers vs Arbroath played?
- Raith Rovers vs Arbroath is played on September 12, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Stark's Park, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.