Arbroath vs Stenhousemuir: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 16Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Gayfield Park, Arbroath
The Footlab AI model makes Stenhousemuir the favourite at 38%, against 29% for a draw and 33% for Arbroath. The most likely score is 1-1. If Stenhousemuir wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Arbroath vs Stenhousemuir?
Stenhousemuir starts as the favourite with a 132-point Elo edge (1,837 vs 1,705).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Arbroath vs Stenhousemuir
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Arbroath
4-2-3-1- 9A. Winter
- 20S. Constable
- 25J. MacIntyre
- 11R. Dow
- 14M. McKenna
- 8R. Flynn
- 26S. Mackie
- 16C. Watson
- 22C. Dewar
- 6T. Beadling
- 1A. McAdams
Stenhousemuir
3-4-3- 20G. Stevenson
- 11L. O'Donnell
- 36L. Lloyd
- 2R. Meechan
- 17M. Anderson
- 10A. Shinnie
- 14K. Bilham
- 5S. Young
- 19S. Bright
- 24L. Grant
- 1D. Jamieson
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 12:47 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arbroath have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Stenhousemuir have 10, 3 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Morton(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Partick(away) | 0-3 | Championship |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Queen's Park(home) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Stenhousemuir(away) | 0-1 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Raith Rovers(away) | 0-4 | Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Inverness CT(away) | 0-2 | Championship |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Ayr Utd(away) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Arbroath(home) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Partick(home) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Heart Of Midlothian(home) | 0-3 | League Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Arbroath wins, 0 draws, 4 Stenhousemuir wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Stenhousemuir 1-0 Arbroath | Championship |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Arbroath 4-0 Stenhousemuir | League One |
| Feb 22, 2025 | Stenhousemuir 2-0 Arbroath | League One |
| Nov 2, 2024 | Arbroath 1-0 Stenhousemuir | League One |
| Aug 3, 2024 | Stenhousemuir 2-1 Arbroath | League One |
| Mar 9, 2019 | Arbroath 0-2 Stenhousemuir | League One |
Last archived meeting: Stenhousemuir vs Arbroath on Sep 19, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Arbroath score 0.9 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Stenhousemuir score 1.3 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arbroath | 0.9 | 1.5 | 3 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| Stenhousemuir | 1.3 | 0.7 | 9 | 4/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Arbroath sit 8th in Championship (11 points from 10 matches) and Stenhousemuir sit 1st (22 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stenhousemuir | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 4 | 22 |
| 8 | Arbroath | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 11 |
A question about Arbroath vs Stenhousemuir?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Arbroath vs Stenhousemuir?
- The Footlab AI model makes Stenhousemuir the favourite at 38%, against 29% for a draw and 33% for Arbroath.
- Where and when is Arbroath vs Stenhousemuir played?
- Arbroath vs Stenhousemuir is played on November 21, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Gayfield Park, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.