Arbroath vs Stenhousemuir: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 16Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Gayfield Park, Arbroath
The Footlab model makes Stenhousemuir the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Arbroath. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Arbroath vs Stenhousemuir?
A very open match: only 85 Elo points separate Arbroath (1,726) and Stenhousemuir (1,811).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arbroath have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Stenhousemuir have 8, 5 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Morton(away) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Inverness CT(home) | 0-0 | Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Ayr Utd(away) | 0-2 | Championship |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Stirling Albion(home) | 1-0 | League Cup |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Montrose(home) | 0-2 | League Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Queen's Park(away) | 2-0 | Championship |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Motherwell(home) | 1-0 | League Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Morton(home) | 2-0 | Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Raith Rovers(away) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Livingston(home) | 0-0 | League Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Arbroath win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Stenhousemuir win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2025 | Arbroath 4-0 Stenhousemuir | League One |
| Feb 22, 2025 | Stenhousemuir 2-0 Arbroath | League One |
| Nov 2, 2024 | Arbroath 1-0 Stenhousemuir | League One |
| Aug 3, 2024 | Stenhousemuir 2-1 Arbroath | League One |
| Mar 9, 2019 | Arbroath 0-2 Stenhousemuir | League One |
| Jan 12, 2019 | Stenhousemuir 1-4 Arbroath | League One |
Last archived meeting: Arbroath vs Stenhousemuir on Apr 12, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Arbroath score 0.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Stenhousemuir score 1.3 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arbroath | 0.9 | 1.1 | 5 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Stenhousemuir | 1.3 | 0.7 | 7 | 6/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Arbroath sit 6th in Championship (4 points from 3 matches) and Stenhousemuir sit 1st (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stenhousemuir | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Arbroath | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Arbroath vs Stenhousemuir?
- The Footlab model makes Stenhousemuir the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Arbroath.
- Where and when is Arbroath vs Stenhousemuir played?
- Arbroath vs Stenhousemuir is played on November 21, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Gayfield Park, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.