Stenhousemuir vs Ayr Utd: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 17Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Ochilview Park, Stenhousemuir
The Footlab AI model makes Stenhousemuir the favourite at 46%, against 28% for a draw and 26% for Ayr Utd. The most likely score is 1-1. If Stenhousemuir wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,805 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 19, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Stenhousemuir vs Ayr Utd?
A very open match: only 90 Elo points separate Stenhousemuir (1,764) and Ayr Utd (1,674).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Stenhousemuir vs Ayr Utd
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Stenhousemuir
3-4-3- 20G. Stevenson
- 11L. O'Donnell
- 36L. Lloyd
- 2R. Meechan
- 17M. Anderson
- 10A. Shinnie
- 14K. Bilham
- 5S. Young
- 19S. Bright
- 24L. Grant
- 1D. Jamieson
Ayr Utd
3-4-3- 12Olly Whyte
- 7O. Stirton
- 11R. Taylor
- 6R. Lyon
- 33S. McMann
- 32D. Watret
- 20L. McBeth
- 5K. Holt
- 3L. Dick
- 8L. King
- 1H. Stone
Computed on October 19, 2026 at 05:39 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Stenhousemuir have 9 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats; Ayr Utd have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Raith Rovers(home) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Inverness CT(away) | 0-2 | Championship |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Ayr Utd(away) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Arbroath(home) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Partick(home) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Partick(home) | 0-1 | Championship |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Dunfermline(home) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Livingston(away) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Stenhousemuir(home) | 0-1 | Championship |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Queen's Park(away) | 2-0 | Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Stenhousemuir win, 0 draws, 5 Ayr Utd wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | Ayr Utd 0-1 Stenhousemuir | Championship |
| Jul 23, 2024 | Stenhousemuir 1-4 Ayr Utd | League Cup |
| Jul 18, 2023 | Ayr Utd 1-0 Stenhousemuir | League Cup |
| Jul 24, 2018 | Ayr Utd 5-0 Stenhousemuir | League Cup |
| Apr 16, 2016 | Stenhousemuir 0-4 Ayr Utd | League One |
| Mar 8, 2016 | Ayr Utd 4-1 Stenhousemuir | League One |
Last archived meeting: Ayr Utd vs Stenhousemuir on Sep 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Stenhousemuir score 1.2 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Ayr Utd score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stenhousemuir | 1.2 | 0.7 | 8 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
| Ayr Utd | 1.3 | 1.1 | 4 | 7/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Stenhousemuir sit 1st in Championship (23 points from 10 matches) and Ayr Utd sit 7th (12 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stenhousemuir | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 23 |
| 7 | Ayr Utd | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 12 | 12 |
A question about Stenhousemuir vs Ayr Utd?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Stenhousemuir vs Ayr Utd?
- The Footlab AI model makes Stenhousemuir the favourite at 46%, against 28% for a draw and 26% for Ayr Utd.
- Where and when is Stenhousemuir vs Ayr Utd played?
- Stenhousemuir vs Ayr Utd is played on December 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Ochilview Park, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.