Arconatese vs Castellanzese: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone DGroup D - 24Kick-off on February 14, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Centro Sportivo Comunale Roberto Battaglia, Busto Garolfo
The Footlab AI model makes Castellanzese the favourite at 51%, against 27% for a draw and 22% for Arconatese. The most likely score is 1-1. If Castellanzese wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,401 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Arconatese vs Castellanzese?
Castellanzese starts as the favourite with a 126-point Elo edge (1,648 vs 1,522).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Arconatese vs Castellanzese
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Arconatese
Not enough data to predict the Arconatese lineup.
Castellanzese
Not enough data to predict the Castellanzese lineup.
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 05:53 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arconatese have 2 wins, 5 draws and 8 defeats; Castellanzese have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Castellanzese(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Pro Sesto(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Pavia(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Pro Patria(home) | 0-3 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Pistoiese(away) | 0-5 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Arconatese(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Sant'Angelo(away) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Crema(home) | 4-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Solbiatese(away) | 4-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oltrepò(home) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Arconatese wins, 2 draws, 4 Castellanzese wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Castellanzese 1-0 Arconatese | Serie D - Girone D |
| Mar 9, 2025 | Castellanzese 2-2 Arconatese | Serie D - Girone B |
| Nov 3, 2024 | Arconatese 1-2 Castellanzese | Serie D - Girone B |
| Mar 3, 2024 | Arconatese 1-2 Castellanzese | Serie D - Girone B |
| Oct 29, 2023 | Castellanzese 1-0 Arconatese | Serie D - Girone B |
| Aug 28, 2022 | Castellanzese 1-1 Arconatese | Coppa Italia Serie D |
Last archived meeting: Castellanzese vs Arconatese on Oct 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Arconatese score 0.9 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Castellanzese score 1.4 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arconatese | 0.9 | 2.1 | 0 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Castellanzese | 1.4 | 1.1 | 3 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Arconatese sit 16th in Serie D - Girone D (3 points from 7 matches) and Castellanzese sit 4th (15 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Castellanzese | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 5 | 15 |
| 16 | Arconatese | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 3 |
A question about Arconatese vs Castellanzese?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Arconatese vs Castellanzese?
- The Footlab AI model makes Castellanzese the favourite at 51%, against 27% for a draw and 22% for Arconatese.
- Where and when is Arconatese vs Castellanzese played?
- Arconatese vs Castellanzese is played on February 14, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Centro Sportivo Comunale Roberto Battaglia, in the Serie D - Girone D.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.