Varesina vs Pavia: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone DGroup D - 24Kick-off on February 14, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Campo Comunale, Venegono Superiore
The Footlab AI model makes Varesina the favourite at 43%, against 30% for a draw and 27% for Pavia. The most likely score is 1-1. If Varesina wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 2,919 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 21, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Varesina vs Pavia?
A very open match: only 45 Elo points separate Varesina (1,733) and Pavia (1,687).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Varesina vs Pavia
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Varesina
Not enough data to predict the Varesina lineup.
Pavia
Not enough data to predict the Pavia lineup.
Computed on October 21, 2026 at 12:18 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Varesina have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Pavia have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Pro Sesto(home) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Pavia(away) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Pro Patria(home) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Sep 27, 2026 | USD Casatese(away) | 2-4 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Pistoiese(home) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Pistoiese(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Varesina(home) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Sant'Angelo(home) | 1-3 | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Correggese(away) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Arconatese(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Varesina wins, 3 draws, 0 Pavia wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Pavia 2-2 Varesina | Serie D - Girone D |
| Mar 1, 2026 | Pavia 1-1 Varesina | Serie D - Girone B |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Varesina 2-2 Pavia | Serie D - Girone B |
How many goals should we expect?
Varesina score 1.3 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Pavia score 0.9 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Varesina | 1.3 | 1.4 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Pavia | 0.9 | 1.4 | 6 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Varesina sit 13th in Serie D - Girone D (7 points from 8 matches) and Pavia sit 11th (8 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Pavia | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 8 |
| 13 | Varesina | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 12 | 7 |
A question about Varesina vs Pavia?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Varesina vs Pavia?
- The Footlab AI model makes Varesina the favourite at 43%, against 30% for a draw and 27% for Pavia.
- Where and when is Varesina vs Pavia played?
- Varesina vs Pavia is played on February 14, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Campo Comunale, in the Serie D - Girone D.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.