Varesina vs Pavia: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone DGroup D - 24Kick-off on February 14, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Campo Comunale, Venegono Superiore
The Footlab model makes Varesina the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Pavia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Varesina vs Pavia?
A very open match: only 26 Elo points separate Varesina (1,722) and Pavia (1,696).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Varesina have 5 wins, 7 draws and 3 defeats; Pavia have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Castellanzese(away) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone B |
| May 3, 2026 | Caldiero Terme(away) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Breno(home) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Milan II(away) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Chievo(home) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 19, 2026 | Pisa(away) | 1-6 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 10, 2026 | Breno(away) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone B |
| May 3, 2026 | Chievo(away) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Virtus Ciserano Bergamo(home) | 3-0 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 19, 2026 | USD Casatese(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Varesina win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Pavia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2026 | Pavia 1-1 Varesina | Serie D - Girone B |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Varesina 2-2 Pavia | Serie D - Girone B |
How many goals should we expect?
Varesina score 1.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Pavia score 1.0 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Varesina | 1.3 | 1.1 | 3 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
| Pavia | 1.0 | 1.1 | 7 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Varesina vs Pavia?
- The Footlab model makes Varesina the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Pavia.
- Where and when is Varesina vs Pavia played?
- Varesina vs Pavia is played on February 14, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Campo Comunale, in the Serie D - Girone D.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.