Arenal vs Formentera: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Group 11 - 14Kick-off on December 6, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Son Verí, S'Arenal de Llucmajor
The Footlab AI model makes Formentera the favourite at 55%, against 25% for a draw and 20% for Arenal. The most likely score is 1-1. If Formentera wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 2,857 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 20, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Arenal vs Formentera?
Formentera starts as the favourite with a 255-point Elo edge (1,894 vs 1,639).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Arenal vs Formentera
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Arenal
4-3-3- DDavid García Movilla
- CChino
- TToni Arrom
- JJuan José
- MMarc Bonet
- JJuan Carlos Gómez Sintes
- DDavid GarcÃa
- DDani Amengual
- SSantiago Soler Quert
- JJuanca
- LLluc Ramis
Formentera
Not enough data to predict the Formentera lineup.
Computed on October 20, 2026 at 11:34 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arenal have 1 win, 3 draws and 11 defeats; Formentera have 9, 4 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | PE Sant Jordi(home) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Llosetense(away) | 1-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Porreres(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Mercadal(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Alcúdia(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Manacor(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Ibiza Islas Pitiusas(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | PE Sant Jordi(home) | 3-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Llosetense(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Porreres(home) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
How many goals should we expect?
Arenal score 0.8 and concede 2.3 goals per match over their last 15; Formentera score 1.7 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arenal | 0.8 | 2.3 | 1 | 8/15 | 13/15 |
| Formentera | 1.7 | 0.9 | 6 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Arenal sit 16th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 (3 points from 6 matches) and Formentera sit 7th (11 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Formentera | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 11 |
| 16 | Arenal | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 14 | 3 |
A question about Arenal vs Formentera?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Arenal vs Formentera?
- The Footlab AI model makes Formentera the favourite at 55%, against 25% for a draw and 20% for Arenal.
- Where and when is Arenal vs Formentera played?
- Arenal vs Formentera is played on December 6, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Son Verí, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 11.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.