Mercadal vs Platges Calvià: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Group 11 - 14Kick-off on December 6, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio San Martì, Menorca
The Footlab model makes Mercadal the favourite at 45%, against 29% for a draw and 26% for Platges Calvià. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mercadal vs Platges Calvià?
A very open match: only 26 Elo points separate Mercadal (1,746) and Platges Calvià (1,773).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mercadal have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Platges Calvià have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Alcúdia(home) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| May 3, 2026 | Mallorca II(away) | 0-7 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Llosetense(away) | 1-6 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Platges Calvià(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Formentera(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Cardassar(away) | 1-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| May 3, 2026 | Manacor(home) | 4-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Mercadal(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Apr 22, 2026 | Felanitx(away) | 3-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Binissalem(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Mercadal win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Platges Calvià win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | Mercadal 1-0 Platges Calvià | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Dec 20, 2025 | Platges Calvià 4-1 Mercadal | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Mar 23, 2025 | Platges Calvià 1-0 Mercadal | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Nov 10, 2024 | Mercadal 1-1 Platges Calvià | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| May 1, 2024 | Platges Calvià 2-3 Mercadal | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Jan 7, 2024 | Mercadal 0-1 Platges Calvià | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
Last archived meeting: Mercadal vs Platges Calvià on Apr 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Mercadal score 0.7 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Platges Calvià score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mercadal | 0.7 | 1.9 | 4 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Platges Calvià | 1.1 | 1.3 | 6 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mercadal sit 8th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 (49 points from 34 matches) and Platges Calvià sit 10th (42 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Mercadal | 34 | 15 | 5 | 15 | 31 | 44 | 49 |
| 10 | Platges Calvià | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 41 | 42 | 42 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mercadal vs Platges Calvià?
- The Footlab model makes Mercadal the favourite at 45%, against 29% for a draw and 26% for Platges Calvià.
- Where and when is Mercadal vs Platges Calvià played?
- Mercadal vs Platges Calvià is played on December 6, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio San Martì, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 11.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.