Mercadal vs Platges Calvià: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Group 11 - 14Kick-off on December 6, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio San Martì, Menorca
The Footlab AI model makes Platges Calvià the favourite at 55%, against 24% for a draw and 21% for Mercadal. The most likely score is 1-1. If Platges Calvià wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 4,618 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 6, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mercadal vs Platges Calvià?
Platges Calvià starts as the favourite with a 120-point Elo edge (1,825 vs 1,705).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Mercadal vs Platges Calvià
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Mercadal
Not enough data to predict the Mercadal lineup.
Platges Calvià
Not enough data to predict the Platges Calvià lineup.
Computed on November 6, 2026 at 07:37 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mercadal have 4 wins, 2 draws and 9 defeats; Platges Calvià have 9, 1 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Llosetense(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Porreres(home) | 1-5 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Cardassar(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Alcúdia(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Constància(home) | 1-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Inter Ibiza(home) | 5-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Formentera(away) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Andratx(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Sineu(away) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Migjorn(home) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Mercadal wins, 1 draw, 3 Platges Calvià wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | Mercadal 1-0 Platges Calvià | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Dec 20, 2025 | Platges Calvià 4-1 Mercadal | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Mar 23, 2025 | Platges Calvià 1-0 Mercadal | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Nov 10, 2024 | Mercadal 1-1 Platges Calvià | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| May 1, 2024 | Platges Calvià 2-3 Mercadal | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Jan 7, 2024 | Mercadal 0-1 Platges Calvià | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
Last archived meeting: Mercadal vs Platges Calvià on Apr 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Mercadal score 1.0 and concede 2.4 goals per match over their last 15; Platges Calvià score 1.9 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mercadal | 1.0 | 2.4 | 2 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Platges Calvià | 1.9 | 1.2 | 6 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mercadal sit 13th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 (8 points from 9 matches) and Platges Calvià sit 1st (21 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Platges Calvià | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 8 | 21 |
| 13 | Mercadal | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 16 | 8 |
A question about Mercadal vs Platges Calvià?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mercadal vs Platges Calvià?
- The Footlab AI model makes Platges Calvià the favourite at 55%, against 24% for a draw and 21% for Mercadal.
- Where and when is Mercadal vs Platges Calvià played?
- Mercadal vs Platges Calvià is played on December 6, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio San Martì, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 11.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.