Aretxabaleta vs Leioa: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 14Kick-off on December 6, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Campo de Fútbol Ibarra, Aretxabaleta (Arechavaleta)
The Footlab AI model makes Leioa the favourite at 47%, against 23% for a draw and 30% for Aretxabaleta. The most likely score is 1-1. If Leioa wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,495 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aretxabaleta vs Leioa?
Leioa starts as the favourite with a 120-point Elo edge (1,847 vs 1,727).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Aretxabaleta vs Leioa
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Aretxabaleta
Not enough data to predict the Aretxabaleta lineup.
Leioa
Not enough data to predict the Leioa lineup.
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 10:56 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aretxabaleta have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Leioa have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Pasaia KE(home) | 4-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Lagun Onak(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Derio(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Durango(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Beasain(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Aurrerá Vitoria(home) | 4-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Amurrio Club(away) | 5-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Eibar III(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | R. Union B(away) | 3-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Pasaia KE(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 3 Aretxabaleta wins, 0 draws, 1 Leioa win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2026 | Aretxabaleta 3-2 Leioa | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Leioa 2-4 Aretxabaleta | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Feb 1, 2025 | Leioa 2-1 Aretxabaleta | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 22, 2024 | Aretxabaleta 2-1 Leioa | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
Last archived meeting: Aretxabaleta vs Leioa on Feb 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Aretxabaleta score 1.5 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Leioa score 1.6 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aretxabaleta | 1.5 | 1.6 | 4 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
| Leioa | 1.6 | 2.0 | 6 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Aretxabaleta sit 5th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 (11 points from 6 matches) and Leioa sit 2nd (12 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Leioa | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 6 | 12 |
| 5 | Aretxabaleta | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 11 |
A question about Aretxabaleta vs Leioa?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aretxabaleta vs Leioa?
- The Footlab AI model makes Leioa the favourite at 47%, against 23% for a draw and 30% for Aretxabaleta.
- Where and when is Aretxabaleta vs Leioa played?
- Aretxabaleta vs Leioa is played on December 6, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Campo de Fútbol Ibarra, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.