Lagun Onak vs Aurrerá Vitoria: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 14Kick-off on December 6, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Garmendipe, Azpeitia
The Footlab model makes Lagun Onak the favourite at 56%, against 25% for a draw and 19% for Aurrerá Vitoria. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lagun Onak vs Aurrerá Vitoria?
A very open match: only 84 Elo points separate Lagun Onak (1,785) and Aurrerá Vitoria (1,701).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lagun Onak have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Aurrerá Vitoria have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Derio(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 17, 2026 | Derio(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 9, 2026 | Leioa(away) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 3, 2026 | Eibar III(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Añorga(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Deusto(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 3, 2026 | Portugalete(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | San Ignacio(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Derio(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Touring(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Lagun Onak win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Aurrerá Vitoria win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | Lagun Onak 4-0 Aurrerá Vitoria | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 6, 2025 | Aurrerá Vitoria 3-1 Lagun Onak | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 22, 2023 | Lagun Onak 1-0 Aurrerá Vitoria | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Jan 7, 2023 | Aurrerá Vitoria 1-1 Lagun Onak | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
Last archived meeting: Lagun Onak vs Aurrerá Vitoria on Jan 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Lagun Onak score 1.3 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Aurrerá Vitoria score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lagun Onak | 1.3 | 1.2 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Aurrerá Vitoria | 1.3 | 1.1 | 4 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lagun Onak sit 4th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 (57 points from 34 matches) and Aurrerá Vitoria sit 8th (54 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Lagun Onak | 34 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 53 | 34 | 57 |
| 8 | Aurrerá Vitoria | 34 | 16 | 7 | 12 | 42 | 40 | 54 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lagun Onak vs Aurrerá Vitoria?
- The Footlab model makes Lagun Onak the favourite at 56%, against 25% for a draw and 19% for Aurrerá Vitoria.
- Where and when is Lagun Onak vs Aurrerá Vitoria played?
- Lagun Onak vs Aurrerá Vitoria is played on December 6, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Garmendipe, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.