Lagun Onak vs Aurrerá Vitoria: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 14Kick-off on December 6, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Garmendipe, Azpeitia
The Footlab AI model makes Lagun Onak the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Aurrerá Vitoria. The most likely score is 1-1. If Lagun Onak wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 2,919 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 21, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lagun Onak vs Aurrerá Vitoria?
A very open match: only 0 Elo points separate Lagun Onak (1,746) and Aurrerá Vitoria (1,746).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Lagun Onak vs Aurrerá Vitoria
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Lagun Onak
Not enough data to predict the Lagun Onak lineup.
Aurrerá Vitoria
4-3-3- ÍÍñigo Hernández
- DDevis
- AAsier Ruiz
- MMartín Asurmendi
- MMikel Gonzalez
- AAritz Castro
- JJoel Martinez
- YYeray Terrazas
- HHodei Gastaminza
- JJon Rementería
- JJulen Barria
Computed on October 21, 2026 at 08:50 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lagun Onak have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Aurrerá Vitoria have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Durango(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Beasain(away) | 2-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Aretxabaleta(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Santurtzi(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | San Ignacio(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Real Sociedad III(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Leioa(away) | 0-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Erandio(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Sodupe(away) | 3-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Deportivo Alavés III(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Lagun Onak wins, 1 draw, 1 Aurrerá Vitoria win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | Lagun Onak 4-0 Aurrerá Vitoria | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 6, 2025 | Aurrerá Vitoria 3-1 Lagun Onak | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 22, 2023 | Lagun Onak 1-0 Aurrerá Vitoria | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Jan 7, 2023 | Aurrerá Vitoria 1-1 Lagun Onak | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
Last archived meeting: Lagun Onak vs Aurrerá Vitoria on Jan 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Lagun Onak score 1.2 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Aurrerá Vitoria score 1.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lagun Onak | 1.2 | 1.5 | 3 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Aurrerá Vitoria | 1.3 | 1.3 | 2 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lagun Onak sit 14th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 (7 points from 7 matches) and Aurrerá Vitoria sit 1st (16 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aurrerá Vitoria | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 8 | 16 |
| 14 | Lagun Onak | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 7 |
A question about Lagun Onak vs Aurrerá Vitoria?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lagun Onak vs Aurrerá Vitoria?
- The Footlab AI model makes Lagun Onak the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Aurrerá Vitoria.
- Where and when is Lagun Onak vs Aurrerá Vitoria played?
- Lagun Onak vs Aurrerá Vitoria is played on December 6, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Garmendipe, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.