Aretxabaleta vs Santurtzi: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 34Kick-off on May 9, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Campo de Fútbol Ibarra, Aretxabaleta (Arechavaleta)
The Footlab AI model makes Aretxabaleta the favourite at 56%, against 24% for a draw and 20% for Santurtzi. The most likely score is 1-1. If Aretxabaleta wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.0% of the 4,836 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 7, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aretxabaleta vs Santurtzi?
On Elo ratings, Aretxabaleta has 1,722 points and Santurtzi 1,655.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Aretxabaleta vs Santurtzi
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Aretxabaleta
Not enough data to predict the Aretxabaleta lineup.
Santurtzi
Not enough data to predict the Santurtzi lineup.
Computed on November 7, 2026 at 07:47 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aretxabaleta have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Santurtzi have 5, 1 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Amurrio Club(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Eibar III(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | R. Union B(away) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Pasaia KE(home) | 4-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Lagun Onak(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Aurrerá Vitoria(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Amurrio Club(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Eibar III(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 10, 2026 | R. Union B(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Pasaia KE(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 0 Aretxabaleta wins, 3 draws, 1 Santurtzi win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Santurtzi 2-1 Aretxabaleta | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Jan 4, 2026 | Aretxabaleta 2-2 Santurtzi | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Mar 9, 2025 | Aretxabaleta 1-1 Santurtzi | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 27, 2024 | Santurtzi 0-0 Aretxabaleta | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
Last archived meeting: Santurtzi vs Aretxabaleta on May 3, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Aretxabaleta score 1.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Santurtzi score 0.9 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aretxabaleta | 1.5 | 1.5 | 4 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Santurtzi | 0.9 | 1.6 | 2 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Aretxabaleta sit 4th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 (17 points from 9 matches) and Santurtzi sit 14th (9 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Aretxabaleta | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 8 | 17 |
| 14 | Santurtzi | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 9 |
A question about Aretxabaleta vs Santurtzi?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aretxabaleta vs Santurtzi?
- The Footlab AI model makes Aretxabaleta the favourite at 56%, against 24% for a draw and 20% for Santurtzi.
- Where and when is Aretxabaleta vs Santurtzi played?
- Aretxabaleta vs Santurtzi is played on May 9, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Campo de Fútbol Ibarra, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.0% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.