Aris Thessalonikis vs Iraklis 1908: prediction and stats
Super League 1Regular Season - 5Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Thessaloníki
The Footlab model makes Aris Thessalonikis the favourite at 52%, against 26% for a draw and 22% for Iraklis 1908. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aris Thessalonikis vs Iraklis 1908?
Aris Thessalonikis starts as the favourite with a 107-point Elo edge (1,950 vs 1,843).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aris Thessalonikis have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Iraklis 1908 have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Kalamata(away) | 3-2 | Super League 1 |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Anagennisi Karditsas(away) | 2-0 | Cup |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Napoli(away) | 2-6 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Monza(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 17, 2026 | Levadiakos(home) | 3-0 | Super League 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | AEK Athens FC(away) | 0-4 | Super League 1 |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Volos NFC(home) | 1-3 | Cup |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Parma(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Palermo(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Bologna(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
How many goals should we expect?
Aris Thessalonikis score 1.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Iraklis 1908 score 1.1 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aris Thessalonikis | 1.7 | 1.3 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Iraklis 1908 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 6 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Aris Thessalonikis sit 5th in Super League 1 (3 points from 1 matches) and Iraklis 1908 sit 13th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Aris Thessalonikis | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 13 | Iraklis 1908 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aris Thessalonikis vs Iraklis 1908?
- The Footlab model makes Aris Thessalonikis the favourite at 52%, against 26% for a draw and 22% for Iraklis 1908.
- Where and when is Aris Thessalonikis vs Iraklis 1908 played?
- Aris Thessalonikis vs Iraklis 1908 is played on September 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, in the Super League 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.