Kalamata vs Panathinaikos: prediction and stats
Super League 1Regular Season - 5Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Gipedo Messiniakos, Kalamata
The Footlab model makes Panathinaikos the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Kalamata. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Kalamata vs Panathinaikos?
Panathinaikos starts as the favourite with a 118-point Elo edge (2,026 vs 1,908).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kalamata have 12 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats; Panathinaikos have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Aris Thessalonikis(home) | 2-3 | Super League 1 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Panetolikos(home) | 4-2 | Cup |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Volos NFC(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Iraklis 1908(home) | 1-0 | Super League 2 |
| Mar 21, 2026 | Marko(away) | 0-0 | Super League 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Hradec Králové(home) | 2-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 11, 2026 | CSKA 1948(away) | 2-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 5, 2026 | CSKA 1948(home) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Paks(home) | 2-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Paks(away) | 2-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
How many goals should we expect?
Kalamata score 1.7 and concede 0.5 goals per match over their last 15; Panathinaikos score 1.2 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalamata | 1.7 | 0.5 | 11 | 3/15 | 4/15 |
| Panathinaikos | 1.2 | 1.5 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Kalamata | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Kalamata vs Panathinaikos?
- The Footlab model makes Panathinaikos the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Kalamata.
- Where and when is Kalamata vs Panathinaikos played?
- Kalamata vs Panathinaikos is played on September 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Gipedo Messiniakos, in the Super League 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.