Ascoli vs Avellino: prediction and stats
Serie BRegular Season - 5Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Ascoli Piceno
The Footlab model makes Ascoli the favourite at 58%, against 24% for a draw and 18% for Avellino. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ascoli vs Avellino?
Ascoli starts as the favourite with a 106-point Elo edge (2,013 vs 1,907).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ascoli have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Avellino have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Genoa(away) | 1-4 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Potenza(home) | 3-1 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Lazio(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Frosinone(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Union Brescia(home) | 3-0 | Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Monza(away) | 0-3 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Torino(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Lazio(away) | 3-6 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Sambenedettese(away) | 5-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Scafatese(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Ascoli win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Avellino win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 5, 2018 | Ascoli 1-1 Avellino | Serie B |
| Dec 16, 2017 | Avellino 1-1 Ascoli | Serie B |
| Apr 25, 2017 | Ascoli 2-0 Avellino | Serie B |
| Dec 3, 2016 | Avellino 1-2 Ascoli | Serie B |
How many goals should we expect?
Ascoli score 1.5 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Avellino score 1.6 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ascoli | 1.5 | 0.9 | 6 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Avellino | 1.6 | 1.5 | 4 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Avellino | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 43 | 55 | 49 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ascoli vs Avellino?
- The Footlab model makes Ascoli the favourite at 58%, against 24% for a draw and 18% for Avellino.
- Where and when is Ascoli vs Avellino played?
- Ascoli vs Avellino is played on September 19, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, in the Serie B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.