Ascoli vs Padova: prediction and stats
Serie BRegular Season - 23Kick-off on January 30, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Ascoli Piceno
The Footlab AI model makes Ascoli the favourite at 56%, against 25% for a draw and 19% for Padova. The most likely score is 1-1. If Ascoli wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ascoli vs Padova?
Ascoli starts as the favourite with a 154-point Elo edge (1,907 vs 1,753).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Ascoli vs Padova
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Ascoli
4-2-3-1- 35G. Gori
- 62T. Milanese
- 15S. D'Uffizi
- 8G. Corradini
- 4S. Damiani
- 7A. Silipo
- 30M. Curado
- 19A. Guiébré
- 33N. Rizzo
- 14A. Oliveri
- 1S. Vitale
Padova
3-5-2- 9L. Moro
- 20M. Bortolussi
- 21E. Zuelli
- 8P. Fusi
- 34M. Cocchi
- 17A. Capelli
- 10G. Caprari
- 27Alessandro Dellavalle
- 5M. Lovato
- 58C. Pastina
- 22A. Sorrentino
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 07:56 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ascoli have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Padova have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Sudtirol(away) | 0-0 | Serie B |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Avellino(home) | 3-1 | Serie B |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Padova(away) | 0-1 | Serie B |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Benevento(home) | 1-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Carrarese(home) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Carrarese(home) | 0-2 | Serie B |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Palermo(away) | 1-2 | Serie B |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Ascoli(home) | 1-0 | Serie B |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Cremonese(away) | 1-3 | Serie B |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Hellas Verona(home) | 1-1 | Serie B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 1 Ascoli win, 0 draws, 2 Padova wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 2026 | Padova 1-0 Ascoli | Serie B |
| Apr 2, 2019 | Padova 1-2 Ascoli | Serie B |
| Nov 10, 2018 | Ascoli 2-3 Padova | Serie B |
How many goals should we expect?
Ascoli score 1.5 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Padova score 1.2 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ascoli | 1.5 | 1.0 | 5 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Padova | 1.2 | 1.5 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ascoli sit 5th in Serie B (11 points from 6 matches) and Padova sit 10th (7 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Ascoli | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 11 |
| 10 | Padova | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 7 |
A question about Ascoli vs Padova?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ascoli vs Padova?
- The Footlab AI model makes Ascoli the favourite at 56%, against 25% for a draw and 19% for Padova.
- Where and when is Ascoli vs Padova played?
- Ascoli vs Padova is played on January 30, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, in the Serie B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.