Aşgabat vs Arkadag: prediction and stats
Ýokary LigaMatchday 27Kick-off on November 20, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Sportkompleks Gökje, Ashgabat
The Footlab AI model makes Arkadag the favourite at 90%, against 7% for a draw and 3% for Aşgabat. The most likely score is 0-3.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.1% of the 5,612 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aşgabat vs Arkadag?
Arkadag is a heavy favourite: 1,925 Elo points against 1,289, a 635-point gap.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Aşgabat vs Arkadag
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Aşgabat
Not enough data to predict the Aşgabat lineup.
Arkadag
5-4-1- 71D. Meredov
- 27Y. Gurbanov
- 9R. Myratberdiýew
- 88A. Ataýew
- 13V. Ballakov
- 12Y. Mammedov
- 20A. Sapargulyyev
- 5A. Bashimov
- 2G. Annagulyýew
- 4M. Saparow
- 40K. Berdiyev
Computed on November 13, 2026 at 05:07 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aşgabat have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Arkadag have 13, 1 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | Köpetdag Aşgabat(away) | 0-1 | Ýokary Liga |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Merw(home) | 1-0 | Ýokary Liga |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Nebitci(home) | 0-0 | Ýokary Liga |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Altyn Asyr(home) | 2-4 | Ýokary Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Ahal(home) | 3-4 | Ýokary Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12, 2026 | Altyn Asyr(home) | 5-2 | Ýokary Liga |
| Nov 8, 2026 | Nebitci(home) | 3-0 | Ýokary Liga |
| Nov 4, 2026 | Gol Gohar(home) | 1-0 | AFC Champions League Two |
| Oct 28, 2026 | Gol Gohar(away) | 0-0 | AFC Champions League Two |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Al-Jazira(away) | 1-2 | AFC Champions League Two |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Aşgabat wins, 0 draws, 6 Arkadag wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 13, 2026 | Aşgabat 1-7 Arkadag | Ýokary Liga |
| May 3, 2026 | Arkadag 3-0 Aşgabat | Ýokary Liga |
| Dec 11, 2025 | Aşgabat 0-1 Arkadag | Ýokary Liga |
| Aug 3, 2025 | Arkadag 4-0 Aşgabat | Ýokary Liga |
| Jun 21, 2025 | Arkadag 7-0 Aşgabat | Ýokary Liga |
| Jun 14, 2025 | Aşgabat 0-2 Arkadag | Ýokary Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Aşgabat score 1.6 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Arkadag score 3.1 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 84% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aşgabat | 1.6 | 1.9 | 5 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Arkadag | 3.1 | 0.7 | 8 | 7/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Aşgabat sit 6th in Ýokary Liga (21 points from 25 matches) and Arkadag sit 1st (81 points from 27 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arkadag | 27 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 108 | 15 | 81 |
| 6 | Aşgabat | 25 | 6 | 3 | 16 | 30 | 53 | 21 |
A question about Aşgabat vs Arkadag?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aşgabat vs Arkadag?
- The Footlab AI model makes Arkadag the favourite at 90%, against 7% for a draw and 3% for Aşgabat.
- Where and when is Aşgabat vs Arkadag played?
- Aşgabat vs Arkadag is played on November 20, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Sportkompleks Gökje, in the Ýokary Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 84% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.1% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.